Below you can find the reasoning behind each single part of the bet builder from full time professional punter Neel Shah.

Italy to Win

No prizes for tipping this one but the rest of the selections will be the basis of the value here. Italy are in strong form with four clean sheets in five games and although they may find it a challenge to break down this Albania side, their superior class should show out in the end.

Those most recent friendlies were against Bosnia, Turkey, Ecuador and Venezuela, where its reasonable to make a comparison to the Albanians. Italy won three of those four games and were held by Turkey. Albania have struggled to score, with just 12 goals in their eight qualifying games. 

Mario Mitaj Over 1.5 Tackles

20-year-old Lokomotiv Moscow midfielder, Mario Mitaj will have a tough evening ahead of him but he’s shown that he’s quite happy to get stuck in when needed. He averages 1.3 tackles per game and picked up at least two tackles in three of his last five games. 

The Italians have also conceded at least one tackle to the opposing left back or left wing back in their last six games where the data is available. 

Mario will likely be up against Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Davide Frattesi on that side and although both are good players, he should see some success in retrieving the ball from them both. 

Federico Chiesa Over 1.5 Shots

Federico Chiesa is slowly getting back to his old self after a horrible run with injuries and struggles to maintain his high standards before the injuries. 

15 of the 26 players in the Italy squad have 20 caps or fewer, and Gianluca Scamacca, expected to lead the line for the Italians has just one goal in his 16 caps. 

Chiesa hit three shots in his last game out against Bosnia, with one landing on target, a shot on target against Turkey the game before, a blank against Venezuela in a friendly, four against the Ukraine and six against North Macedonia, despite not playing 90 minutes in any of those fixtures. 

Under 2.5 Goals

We’ve touched upon Albania’s scoring struggles and Italy’s solid defensive work in recent games. Italy have seen just one game go over 2.5 goals in their last five internationals.

Albania’s victory over Azerbaijan in their last friendly was the first time one of their games had gone over that line in their last ten internationals. 

Italy’s historical record at the Euros from their 45 games average 1.84 goals per game and just 36% of Euros opening games have featured three or more goals. 

I think with an expected cagey start and an Albanian side set up to frustrate a far from prolific Azzurri, there’s a very strong chance we see a low goal count on Saturday.