Croatia to Win

Croatia lost out 3-0 to Spain but actually won the xG battle, with 2.27 compared to Spain’s 2.11. They still created chances and looked a threat and I expect that to continue against an Albanian side who will be up against it once again. 

Albania have now lost to Italy in their most recent game and when faced with a tougher test, have also lost to Sweden and Chile in their March friendlies. 

Croatia haven’t lost successive tournament games since Euro 96 and have more than enough quality to see this one out, even if it might take a while to break down the Albanian defences. 

Josko Gvardiol Over 1.5 shots

Gvardiol ended Man City’s season with a phenomenal goalscoring run, with four goals by the end of it. He has scored two goals in 31 caps for the national side and has started the last three internationals in the left back position. 

Against Spain, he almost scored and had another attempt at goal. He also had three attempts at the Portuguese goal in a friendly against Tunisia in March. 

With the low block Albania will seek to employ, his ability to cut in from the left hand side to support the attack will be much needed and we should see him in those pockets of space to let loose a screamer. 

Luka Modric Over 0.5 Assists

Modric had eight assists for Real Madrid this season but this comes off the back of relatively limited playing time. Even though he featured in 47 games, if you worked out his minutes per game average, it comes in at just 49 minutes. 

I expect him to have a decent run out against this Albania side and although he averages 0.2 assists per game in the last few years for Croatia, he did hit two in a friendly against Egypt in March and this kind of game is where he should thrive against a tough to break down defence and where one of his set pieces might be enough to pick the lock. 

Over 1.5 Goals

There’ve been over 1.5 goals in Croatia’s last four games and in Albania’s last three.

Predominantly this is a play on Croatia’s ability to still create quality chances but the encouraging sign that Albania were able to score against Italy shows they have more of an attacking threat than many, including myself, were anticipating. 

The third place factor in the group, where another defeat isn’t necessarily a final nail in the coffin should allow the game to open up in spells too.