Austria to Win

Austria have become many tipsters’ dark horses for the tournament, with a blend of exciting talent, a tactical system that takes inspiration from the Red Bull group of clubs coaching philosophy and an array of talent playing predominantly in Germany’s Bundesliga who will feel very much at home in these surroundings. 

The defeat to France in Gameday 1 make their task tougher, but they can come out of that match with pride, having competed well in spells and still causing the French a few problems. 

They still managed three shots on target and had a great chance to open the scoring and will be expected to have more of the play and possession in this game, facing a different task of breaking down a more defensive minded team. At the odds though, I see them as clear favourites for the game and more than a 50/50 shot to win at the implied odds. 

Christoph Baumgartner Over 1.5 Shots on Target

Poland conceded just four shots on target against the Dutch, but will face one of two scenarios in this game. Either defending deep to try and secure a point, leaving all their eggs in one basket for a final win on Gameday 3, or taking a more positive approach to try and secure a win, especially if going down a goal early and leaving space at the back for Austria to exploit. 

Baumgartner has hit at least two shots on target in four of his last five games and has a shot on target in seven of his last eight appearances for Austria. He troubled the French defence last time out and his work rate and ability to find himself in good positions gives him a good chance of landing this, especially with the dynamics at play for Gameday 2.. 

Nicolas Seiwald Over 1.5 Tackles

Seiwald was an absolute monster against the French, with a phenomenal 8 tackles. He also hit four against the Swiss in their final warm up friendly and averages 2.55 tackles per game over the past few international seasons. 

Poland regularly get into physical battles in the midfield, where Seiwald will be patrolling. Ethan Ampadu for Wales hit five tackles against them in their playoff game and Joey Veerman hit two in the game against the Netherlands. 

The Czech Republic’s two central midfielders Soucek and Sadilek hit a combined eight against them last year, so given the game state and Austria’s aggressive pressing tactics against a sometimes ponderous Poland side, he has a great chance to land this line.

Under 4.5 Goals

With the 3rd place potential for both sides, this second match becomes more of a must not lose than a must win game and a draw would still be enough for either side to be optimistic of progressing to the knockout phase with a win on Gameday 3. 

I expect caution to be applied in the first half, and from a purely variance perspective, the goal count and early goals in the game so far will either continue or fall back to a lower baseline. I am of the latter opinion but we will see in this game. 

The 4.5 line gives a bit of extra insurance but bumps up the builder significantly, with just one of the first 15 games having gone over this line, which was the opening day hammering dished out by Germany against Scotland.