Germany To Win

Germany have gone from strength to strength in 2024. They beat France and the Netherlands in the first international break of the year and Julian Nagelsmann appears to have struck the right balance since then. 

Toni Kroos rejoining the team had had a huge impact and the team are able to dominate possession with him dictating the pace. The likes of Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz have also starred in the opening games of the tournament. 

Nagelsmann’s side have played six matches this calendar year. They have won five and drawn one of those matches. Over that period, they have scored an average of 2.17 goals per game and conceded just 0.5. They looked a little more vulnerable in their last match against Hungary but thoroughly deserved their victory. 

So far at Euro 2024, the Germans have an average xG of 1.9 per game whereas their opponents have an average xG of 0.66. They face a Swiss side that have conceded an average of 2.33 goals in their last three games where they have been priced at odds of 4/1 or greater on the 1x2 market.

Over 7.5 Corners 

Germany dominated their first match against Scotland and won all five of the corners in the match. However, there were 18 corners as they beat Hungary 2-0. Under Nagelsmann, Germany’s 10 matches have seen an average of 9.8 corners per game. 

Switzerland’s last match against Scotland saw 13 corners. They will have seen the way that the Hungarians were able to get at the hosts and look to replicate that.

There is no pressure on Murat Yakin’s side and they could face some rotated German players in the later parts of the game. Therefore, the underdogs can make a healthy contribution to the overall corner count.

Over 1.5 Fouls For Fabian Schar

Fabian Schar has started at right centre-back in both of Switzerland’s games so far and is very likely to assume that position here. That would put him in direct opposition with Florian Wirtz, Germany’s maverick midfielder who has been forcing plenty of fouls this tournament. 

Wirtz averaged 5.45 progressive carries per 90 minutes played for Bayer Leverkusen last season, meaning he ranked in the top 12% when compared to all other wingers and attacking midfielders across Europe’s top five leagues. 

His willingness to carry the ball and operate in tight space is fantastic for forcing fouls. Maximilian Mittelstadt has also been keen to overlap the midfielders and create overloads on that side of the pitch. The left-back was fouled on three occasions against Hungary and twice against Scotland. 

Attila Foila started at right centre-back for Hungary in Germany’s last game. Ryan Porteous played that position for Scotland in Germany’s first game. He played 45 minutes and was sent off for his only foul.

Schar made an average of 1.1 fouls per 90 minutes played in the Premier League last season but playing as a wider centre for his country makes him less protected. The Newcastle defender made two fouls in the 1-1 draw with Scotland.