Below you can find the reasoning behind each part of the bet from full time professional punter Neel Shah.

Under 3.5 Goals

Just two of Denmark’s last 10 games have had four or more goals and just three of Serbia’s last 10 have gone over that line. A common assumption that bettors will make is that teams that need goals will actually get the goals and the Scotland vs Hungary game is a perfect example of why that often isn’t the case. 

Neither side have looked prolific in an attacking sense and with a draw enough for Denmark and a grindy 1-0 win enough for Serbia, I can’t see this being a ping pong battle between both sets of goalposts. Cue this being a 4-4 thriller and me being reminded of this forever….

Sasa Lukic To Be Shown a Card

Serbia’s tenacious midfielder was booked against Slovenia and in a warm up game just before the start of the Euros. He now has three yellow cards in his last five games. He also commits an average of 1.85 fouls per 90 minutes and his presence may be needed for the duration in this vital game. 

Denmark do have pace and directness with Hojlund and Wind in attacking areas and Christian Eriksen will need to be closed down, potentially in cynical ways to restrict the supply lines. 

For a must win game, he is the first name in mind for a booking. Frenchman, Francois Letexier, takes charge of the game and averages 4.12 yellow cards per game across the season. 

Denmark Double Chance

Serbia have been disappointing in this tournament and the 1-1 draw against Slovenia couldn’t be seen as unfortunate with their relative xG figures at 1.38 to 1.46 in Serbia’s favour. 

Watching the game itself, Slovenia had some great chances and Serbia’s off the ball work was exposed on several occasions. 

If we are to believe the commentary in England, the Serbs were there for the taking in the England match and the 1-0 scoreline was more a reflection of England’s tactical incompetence and lack of energy rather than Serbia putting in a good performance. 

The Danes have the recent tournament experience and have come through tests like these before and if they put their minds to it, I think they could well grind out at least a draw in what I expect to be a tough, low scoring match. Something that suits the Danes more than a vulnerable Serbian defence.