Patrik Schick Over 1.5 Shots on Target

Former golden boot winner, Patrik Schick, was in fine fettle against Georgia, hitting the target four times in his 68 minutes. I expect him to last the full 90 in this encounter with so much on the line and his quality in front of goal vitally needed. 

He averages 1.26 shots on target per 90 minutes in the past few International seasons for the Czechs. Against Georgia, they produced an XG output of 3.07, the highest of any side at the Euros so far. 

Although the Turks probably won’t be as open as this, they certainly give chances away, with an xGA of 1.73 against Portugal and 2.03 against Georgia, Schick should find himself some good opportunities in this game, particular with the context of the group standings and the Czechs wanting to be on the front foot. 

Lukas Provod Over 0.5 Fouls

Czech enforcer, Lukas Provod, averages 2.1 fouls per 90 minutes and has picked up four bookings in his last seven games (which also makes him a potentially attractive play for the cards market). He committed three fouls against Georgia and two against Portugal. 

He’s committed at least one foul in eight of his last 10 appearances for his nation, despite only completing 90 minutes on one occasion. 

In what I anticipate to be an end to end game with spells of scrappy play and with everything on the line for the Czechs, I’d be more than a little surprised if he doesn’t make a foul in the 90 minutes and…famous last words… this looks a banker if ever I saw one.

Hakan Calhanoglu Over 1.5 Shots

Turkish maestro, Hakan Calhanoglu, was a creative force against Georgia with four shots in the game and still managed a shot in the defeat to Portugal. 

He should have more opportunities in this game with less of a quality gap between the two nations and Turkey should get opportunities on the counter attack, particularly if the Czechs need to bomb forward in search of a goal. 

He is the main man on free kick duty and has the ability to shoot from range or pick up smart positions inside the box. He took two shots against Italy and three against Austria in friendlies earlier this year and has shown an ability to create shooting chances against other top opposition in recent times. 

Over 3.5 Cards

Romanian referee, Istvan Kovacs, is in charge of the game and my word does he love a card. Across over 2500 games in his career, he averages 5.35 yellow cards per game. If you thought he might have mellowed with age and experience, you’d be wrong! 

This season he has given out an average of six yellow cards per game across nine games in the Champions League, Europa League and his previous Euros game. 

Turkey themselves average 2.1 yellow cards per match and the Czechs 3.0 in their last 10 games. Given the massive context of the game being a must win for the Czechs and Turkey still highly motivated, we could see this line come in quite comfortably.