Germany To Win

Prior to the draw with Switzerland, Germany looked imperious. They look a far better team than the one that crashed out of the last World Cup at the group stages under Hansi Flick. Their ability to dick deep and salvage a draw in their final group game also highlighted the mental strength that this group of players have.

It’s been a hugely successful year for Germany so far. They beat both France and the Netherlands in March which boosted their morale ahead of hosting the European Championships. They are no seven games unbeaten in 2024 and the contract signed by Julian Nagelsmann means there is stability in their ranks,

They face a Denmark side that have lost just one of their last 15 matches. However, they could only manage three draws in the group stages. Over that 15-game period, the only opposition they have faced that is comparable to the Germans is England. Gareth Southgate’s men were well below par in that fixture. If Germany play as they did in their opening two games, they should get the better of the Danes in 90 minutes.

Over 0.5 Fouls For Antonio Rudiger

The Germans have seen more of the ball than any other side at Euro 2024, so it is surprising to see that they rank fairly highly in terms of fouls made. They have made an average of 13 per game, which means they rank 6th in the tournament for fouls made.

Nagelsmann demands that his team play a high line in order to squeeze the opposition when Germany don’t have the ball. This means that the centre-backs are required to step out and win the ball when counter-attacking lanes open up. Therefore, we are backing Antonio Rudiger to make a foul in this one. 

Rudiger is known for his aggressive style of defending. He has the speed and physical capabilities to engage with any attacker. He averaged 0.9 fouls per 90 minutes played in La Liga for Real Madrid last season. More importantly for us, he has made at least one foul in all of Germany’s matches at Euro 2024 so far. He made two fouls against Switzerland in their last game and looks good for a foul here. 

Over 0.5 Shots On Target For Jamal Musiala

Much was made about the Germans lacking a true number nine ahead of the tournament but that hasn’t proven to be an issue. Niclas Fullkrug has made an impact from the bench in that role but the starting quartet in attack have rotated to devasting effect. Jamal Musiala is one of the players who has flourished in his role in that attack.

The Bayern Munich midfielder has started from the right in Germany’s three matches but he has been given the license to roam. He has popped up on both wings and found himself in the penalty area on numerous occasions. This has led to him having plenty of shots. 

Musiala has had a shot on target in all three of his matches at the tournament so far and found the net twice. He had an average of 6.02 touches in the opposition box for Bayern Munich last season, which helped him average 1.1 shots on target per 90 minutes. Jamal carries more of the goal-scoring burden for Germany than his club so I’m happy to back him to have another shot on goal here.