Below you can find the reasoning behind each part of the bet from full time professional punter Neel Shah (mybettorlife).

Fabian Ruiz to have over 1.5 shots on target

Under this new look Spanish side, Fabian Ruiz has been a real threat from midfield, averaging 2.46 shots per game in the past few international seasons. In the tournament so far, he hit two shots on target against Italy and one against Croatia before being rested against Albania.

In Georgia’s historic win against Portugal, they still conceded five shots on target, including two from midfield against a second string Portuguese side.

The Czechs had an incredible 12 shots on target against them and the Turks had eight.

Given the calibre of those opponents and the way Georgia have been extremely open and aggressive in their approach, he should get plenty of opportunities to shoot on goal in this game. 

Over 2.5 goals

Although just one of Georgia’s and one of Spain’s group games went over this line, I see this as being an open encounter, where either Spain will be able to pick off an entertaining but naive Georgian defence, or Georgia will pose a real problem to the Spanish and are more than capable of nicking a goal here.

Actual goal counts only tell one part of the story however. Even against Portugal, the Georgians had an xGA of 1.55.

The Czechs recorded a phenomenal 3.09 xG, the highest of the tournament at the time when they played Georgia, and Turkey an xG of 2.48.

Spain were unlucky to only win 1-0 against Italy with an xG of 2.05 and 8 shots on target in that game, and a final day encounter where they had already qualified, lacked their usual intensity.

I suspect that this game will be played at a breakneck pace and the underlying metrics for both sides will play out quite comfortably. 

Rodri over 0.5 fouls

Man City’s lynchpin was out suspended for the Albania game and this round of 16 tie is the perfect way to commemorate his return with a foul.

He was booked in the first two group games and committed 3 fouls across them both. He’s committed at least one foul in 6 of his last 7 games.

Georgia have speed on the break, and the likes of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Kochorashvili and Mikautadze, have all been persistently fouled across the group stages.

The Spanish are notoriously prolific foulers, with 15 against Albania, 17 against Italy and 14 against Croatia.

If Spain continue to foul in key areas, he has a great chance to pick up at least one of those. 

Alvaro Morata to have over 2.5 shots

Alvaro Morata will be fresh and rested with just an 18 minute run out against Albania. He managed 8 shots against Georgia in two qualifiers for the Euros and averages 2.95 shots per game in the past few seasons.

The Georgian’s liberal approach to defending has been outlined already and for a striker such as Morata, who’s accuracy is sometimes questioned but not his regularity of shooting, the over 2.5 shots line looks likely to come in, either through dominant Spanish attacking play from the start or from desperation with a Georgia side desperately holding on to a lead or a draw.

Morata will be looking at the golden boot standings and seeing an opportunity to stake his claim, this is the last leg of my builder and probably the one I like the most of the four.