France Win

France started Euro 2024 with a hard fought 1-0 win over a high energy Austrian side led by Ralph Rangnick, but tapered off with draws in both of their remaining matches against Netherlands and Poland. 

Unlucky to actually not lose the game if it wasn’t for a disallowed Xavi Simons goal late on against the Netherlands, they did create more than enough to have taken all three points, winning the xG 1.43 v 0.47. Similarly in the draw with Poland, chances were squandered, where they amassed a 2.32 but still only found the net once. 

I wasn’t expecting too much from Belgium this tournament, but an easy group with Slovakia, Romania and Ukraine, I was expecting them to still top their group comfortably. They drew 0-0 in their last group game with Ukraine who have also been poor, and if they perform like that against this French side, its hard to see them coming out unscathed. 

Mbappe to Score

A France victory and Mbappe goal often go hand in hand, with their talisman always their most dangerous attacker, boosted by his penalty duties. Eight goals across his last eight games for France, and off the mark in his last outing against Poland, he will be looking to add more to his tally and hunt down that golden boot. 

He amassed a 1.31xG against Poland, and a 0.81xG against Austria in the opener, producing similar figures against Belgium will likely see him find the net. 

Under 3.5 Goals

I am all over a France win here, but I still think it can remain tight across periods of the game and backing under 3.5 goals in a knockout fixtures seems wise.

Frances three group games only saw three goals in total, which is identical to Belgium, who only saw three goals across their group fixtures, with both teams managing a 0-0 too. Both teams can be extremely patient with the ball at the back, we could see plenty of passes racked up from both sides. With less impetus on attacking, seeing four or more goals looks unlikely.