Netherlands To Win

Despite their woes in the group stages, I’m backing the Netherlands to win as part of this bet builder.
Since Ronald Koeman returned to the role of boss of the Dutch national team, they have won 10 of their 17 matches. The 3-2 defeat against Austria was just their fifth defeat in that period. Their other losses have come against France, Germany and Italy. 

Romania are 7/1 on the 1x2 market coming into this game. They have failed to win any of their last five matches where they have been priced between 11/2 and 10/1. During that run, they have lost four and averaged just 0.8 goals per game. 

Over 0.5 Tackles For Stefan De Vrij

Centre-backs aren’t usually the most reliable candidates to make tackles with them being shielded by deeper midfield players, but Stefan De Vrij has made at least one tackle in all three of the Netherlands’ matches at Euro 2024 so far.

The Inter Milan defender hasn’t been afraid to step up and win the ball. He made four tackles in the Dutch win over Poland in their first match of the tournament. De Vrij made two tackles in their final game against Austria. The Netherlands sat far deeper in their game against France but Stefan still made one tackle.

Koeman’s side should be in the ascendancy here and look to play further up the pitch. This should mean their centre-backs are occasionally isolated when the opposition counters.

Stefan De Vrij averaged 1.3 tackles per 90 minutes played for Inter in 31 appearances across Serie A and the Champions League last season. 

Over 0.5 Shots On Target For Cody Gakpo

The Dutch have had more than their fair share of world-class number nines over the years but the current crop aren’t blessed with that focal point in attack. Instead, they are relying on the likes of Cody Gakpo to come up with the goods. The Liverpool man has looked dangerous operating from the left so we are backing him to have a shot on target here. 

The Liverpool attacker has had a shot on target in all three of the Netherlands’ games so far. He managed two shots on target in their opening game against Poland. Gakpo scored twice in the group stages so he should be full of confidence here. He averaged 1.3 shots on target per 90 minutes played in the Premier League last season.

Romania have also looked vulnerable. They have conceded an average of five shots on target per game at Euro 2024 so far. Only four sides allowed their opponents to have more shots on goal in the group stages. 

Under 4.5 Cards In The Match

The Netherlands’ matches have seen an average of 1.67 cards at the European Championships, the fewest in the tournament and well below the average of 4.02 cards. There were three cards handed out in their clash with Austria in the final group game. Their other two games at the tournament saw just one card dished out.

Cards have also been scarce in Romania’s matches. The average of three cards in their games ranks as the fourth fewest in the competition. Under 4.5 cards has also landed in all three Romania games.