Matthew O'Regan picks out a big price 50/1 bet builder for Man United vs Nottingham Forest on Saturday evening.
17:30 Saturday - Man United vs Nottingham Forest
Below, Matthew O'Regan provides more detail on each part of his bet builder. At the time of writing, it was a best price 50/1 on bet365 but as short as 28/1 elsewhere.
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Nicolas Dominguez to be carded
Nicolas Dominguez has made a big impact after signing for Nottingham Forest last year. The 26-year-old added much needed steel and tenacity in the midfield, as well as scoring crucial goals against Manchester United and Brentford. Per 90, he was averaging 1.56 fouls and 0.24 yellow cards. This was a decrease from his final season at Bologna where he registered 1.68 fouls and 0.39 yellows per 90.
He played the full 90 minutes against Manchester City and should be trusted in the double pivot, as Nuno prefers his defensive discipline away at bigger teams. The 26-year-old made two fouls and was booked in the first half against the champions. He is now averaging 0.52 yellow cards and 1.82 fouls per 90 this season. Eight centre midfielders have been booked against Manchester United in their 14 Premier League games.
Manuel Ugarte to be carded
When Ruben Amorim left Sporting Lisbon to become the new Manchester United manager, not many people would’ve been more pleased than Manuel Ugarte. The Uruguayan enjoyed two fruitful seasons under Amorim before PSG splashed out £60 million for his services.
The 23-year-old then signed for the Red Devils in the summer and started in Manchester United’s disappointing 2-0 defeat at the Emirates, picking up a yellow for dissent. Ugarte was impressive off the ball, winning the most duels.
While Ugarte was only booked 0.23 times from 2.14 fouls committed per 90 in Ligue 1, he was shown 0.46 yellow cards from 2.53 fouls per 90 in the Champions League. This season, he has been brandished six bookings in all competitions for club and country, as well three in four starts in the Premier League.
Nottingham Forest excel in transition with the silky Morgan Gibbs-White at the heart of most attacks. This counter-attacking style of play leads to opposition central midfielders making cynical fouls to break up the play. A mammoth 20 centre midfielders have been booked in 14 Premier League games against the Reds, with Ryan Yates and Gibbs-White winning 2.44 and 1.52 fouls per 90 respectively.
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Morgan Gibbs-White to be carded
While Gibbs-White is a yellow card drawing machine, he isn’t shy of a caution himself. The England international has been booked in his last two Premier League starts, as well as being sent off in the 2-2 draw with Brighton earlier in the season.
Committing 1.98 fouls per 90, the 24-year-old has been shown 0.40 yellows and 0.12 reds per 90. He also has a nasty streak that may see him in the book for dissent, especially when playing a against a player like Bruno Fernandes.
Murillo Over 0.5 Shots
Murillo has been a revelation since signing for Nottingham Forest last summer. The 22-year-olds form saw him rightly called up to the Brazil national team for the first time. Unsurprisingly, he has been touted for moves to bigger teams, but for now he remains at Nottingham Forest.
A tough-tackling brute of a defender, Murillo also possesses unbelievable technical ability that has seen him stand out. The Brazilian is also supremely confident and has become renowned for his driving runs out of defence.
Murillo is averaging 0.88 shots per 90, registering at least one shot in his last eight games. While the 22-year-old is a threat from corners scoring against Newcastle, he also has the tendency to shoot from long distance, with seven of his 12 shots coming from outside the penalty box. Nuno Espirito Santos also gives him long-range free kicks, so his shot price presents great value.
