Midweek sees a full Championship slate as we head into a busy Christmas period. Matthew O’Regan has his five best bets.
19:45 Tuesday
Burnley vs Derby - Burnley Win to Nil
Despite relegation from the Premier League, Vincent Kompany attracted the attention of German giants Bayern Munich and was appointed as their new manager in the summer. Scott Parker, who has previous promotion experience with Fulham and Bournemouth, was hired as his replacement.
The Clarets have had a strong start to the season, sitting in third place, just two points off table-toppers Sheffield United. Parker has often been criticised for his pragmatism, with his side conceding just seven goals in 19 games, including just three in nine home games.
Their 1-1 draw with fellow promotion contenders Middlesbrough thwarted a four-game winning run and saw them concede for the first time since the 3rd of November.
Visiting Turf Moor on Tuesday are 16th place Derby County. The Rams were promoted in second place but sit just three points clear of the relegation zone after three successive losses. Paul Warne’s side has struggled away from home, picking up just six points and scoring nine goals in the process.
The 51-year-old was lambasted by the Derby faithful for describing his side as a ‘League One team with a sprinkle of sugar on the top’ after their 2-0 loss to Leeds. In this game, County accumulated just 0.08 xG from three shots.
Warne’s comments and his side’s feebleness in attack when away at promotion contenders will not inspire Derby fans in a tough bout at Turf Moor.
19:45 Tuesday
Portsmouth vs Norwich – Over 2.5 Goals
Portsmouth have struggled in their return to the Championship after storming to the League One title last season. John Mousinho’s side are currently 23rd, but seven points from three games has inspired life into the South Coast side.
The return of Colby Bishop has coincided with the upturn in form, with the 28-year-old scoring two goals and registering one assist in just 145 minutes of football. Fratton Park is renowned for its boisterous atmosphere, and the supporters have been rewarded with entertainment, with the last three home games seeing 10 goals.
Five of their eight home games have seen at least three goals, and thanks to the return of their talisman, we should see an increase in attacking impetus.
Norwich lost in last year’s playoff semi-final and decided to part ways with David Wagner. Johannes Hoff Thorup was appointed as the new manager, departing Danish club FC Nordsjælland.
The Canaries have had a solid start under his stewardship, sitting 10th, five points off the playoffs. Thorup’s attacking style was cited as the main reason for his appointment, and the Dane has certainly delivered on this front. Norwich games have averaged 3.42 goals, with 11 of their 19 games seeing over 2.5 goals, including their last four.
Over the last nine games, the Yellows games are seeing an average of 4.11 goals, conceding at least two in their last five away games. With both sides starting to click in attack but showing defensive vulnerability, goals should be on the cards at Fratton Park.
19:45 Tuesday
Sunderland vs Bristol City – Sunderland Win
A season of disarray saw Sunderland finish in 16th in a campaign that saw three different managers in charge. The appointment of the relatively unknown Regis Le Bris and the sale of key man Jack Clarke saw supporters worried ahead of this year, but The Black Cats have had a strong start.
Sunderland currently sits in fourth, three points off the top, having lost just three times this season. Saturday’s 2-1 win over Stoke was the first victory in seven games after a tricky run of fixtures. However, the Black Cats are still unbeaten at home, conceding just five goals.
Making the long journey up to the North-East are Bristol City. Liam Manning’s side have been riddled with inconsistency this campaign. In their last seven games, City have won three and lost four, losing three of their last four without scoring a goal.
Sunderland have the opportunity to keep the pressure on the trio of sides above them and look value to win a second straight home game.
20:00 Wednesday
West Brom vs Coventry – Under 2.5 Goals
Draws and West Brom have become synonymous with the Baggies, drawing 10 of their last 11 games. Carlos Corberan’s side boasts the fourth-best defensive record in the league but have also scored the fewest goals in the top 10.
Games at the Hawthorns have been devoid of entertainment, with the nine games averaging just 1.22 goals. Eight of the 11 goals that have been scored at home have come in two games, with the other seven seeing just three.
Coventry made the controversial decision to sack legendary Mark Robins after an indifferent start to the season. Frank Lampard was hired as the new manager, gaining four points from his opening games at home to Cardiff and away to Millwall.
Away from home, Sky Blues games have seen an average of 2.1 goals, with seven of their 10 games seeing less than three goals. Lampard will look to extend his unbeaten start at the helm in what should be a cagey game with limited attacking action.
19:45 Tuesday
Sheffield Wednesday vs Blackburn - Under 2.5 Goals
Sheffield Wednesday looked destined for the drop last season until Danny Röhl came in and inspired them to safety.
The Owls have quietly gone under the radar this campaign and are sat in ninth place despite accumulating just four points from their opening six games.
The 35-year-old’s side are unbeaten in their last four and, with three favourable games before Christmas, have the chance to challenge the playoffs.
Their last six games have seen an average of just 1.66 goals as Röhl looks to improve a defence that was leaky at the start of the season. Of the 10 games at Hillsborough this season, seven have seen under 2.5 goals.
Blackburn come into this game on the back of four straight wins, including three consecutive 1-0 wins against Middlesbrough, Leeds and Hull. John Eustace’s side currently occupy the last playoff space and have conceded just 17 goals this season.
However, the lack of a clinical striker may be their downfall, with top scorer Yuki Osashi on a 13-game goal drought. Of their 18 games, 11 have seen less than three goals, including eight of their last nine.