Matthew O’Regan previews the Carabao Cup quarter-final action.
19:30 Wednesday
The Carabao Cup quarter-finals are upon us and Matthew O’Regan has six best bets at odds of 13/8, 15/8, 11/2, 4/1, 9/2 and 12/5, covering all four games.
He starts with a selection in the first quarter-final featuring the favourites to win the competition, Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal.
The Gunners share the same best price of 11/4 with Liverpool on BetVictor but are a shortest 9/4 and a general 5/2 elsewhere, whereas Liverpool are 11/4 with more than half the bookmakers on the oddschecker grid.
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Matthew O’Regan’s Carabao Cup Betting Tips
- Ismaila Sarr Over 0.5 Shots On Target – 13/8 bet365
- Newcastle Win and BTTS – 15/8 William Hill
- Wataru Endo to be Carded @ 11/2 Sky Bet
- Darwin Nunez to be Carded @ 4/1 bet365
- Lucas Bergvall to be Carded @ 9/2 bet365
- Manuel Ugarte to be Carded @ 12/5 bet365
Ismaila Sarr Over 0.5 Shots On Target – 13/8 (bet365)
Arsenal host Crystal Palace at the Emirates in the first of the Carabao Cup games this midweek. The hosts could not capitalise on leaders Liverpool drawing 2-2 at home to Fulham, only mustering up a 0-0 draw with strugglers Everton.
Mikel Arteta is desperate for another trophy after questions over his management in recent weeks, so expect a strong side on Tuesday.
Buoyed by their 1-3 win over bitter rivals Brighton, Crystal Palace come into this game with just one defeat in nine, including beating Aston Villa away in the previous round. Oliver Glasner has had a strong start to life in Croydon, and a victory in North London would be the best of the lot.
The Eagles had a stuttering start to the season due to the sale of star man Michael Olise, with the new signings failing to make a mark. However, Ismaila Sarr is slowly coming into his own after scoring a brace on the South Coast on Sunday.
The Senegalese winger now has four goals and two assists in all competitions and comes into this game in a rich vein of form.
After three shots on target against Brighton, Sarr is now averaging 1.40 SOT p90 after blanking in the two games prior. The 26-year-old has hit a shot on target in six of his nine starts this season, hitting at least two on five occasions.
19:45 Wednesday
Newcastle Win & BTTS – 15/8 (William Hill)
Newcastle were emphatic winners on the weekend, dismantling a lacklustre Leicester side 4-0.
This thwarted a game of four games without a victory and eased the pressure on Eddie Howe a touch. His side currently sit 12th in the league, scoring 23 and conceding 21 in 16 games, with their games averaging just 2.75 goals.
However, their games have been more goal-laden in recent weeks, with their last six games seeing an average of four goals per game. They host a Brentford side who have seen a whopping 3.875 goals per game.
Thomas Frank’s side have been the league entertainers, scoring 32 goals – a total only bettered by Tottenham and Chelsea. Only strugglers Leicester, Wolves and Southampton have conceded more than Brentford’s 30.
The Bees have seen ‘both teams to score’ land in 16/18 league games, as well as 15 of the last 16 in all competitions – including the 4-2 home win over Wednesday’s hosts.
While Brentford have been imperious at home, picking up 22 points from a possible 24, they have struggled on their travels, picking up just one point from eight. Newcastle should have the beating of the feeble-travelling Bees as they chase a first major trophy since 1955.
20:00 Wednesday
Wataru Endo to be booked @ 11/2 (Sky Bet)
Arne Slot has adapted smoothly to life in the Anfield dugout with his side sitting atop the Premier League.
The Reds have also won 6/6 in the Champions League and are in the quarter-finals of the Carabao Cup after an impressive 2-3 win over Brighton in the last round. A lack of investment would’ve frustrated the Liverpool faithful in the summer, but the Dutchmen has dealt with squad rotation well.
In the last round against Brighton, Slot made a host of changes, and he is expected to do the same against a struggling Southampton side. After making 43 appearances in his debut season, Wataru Endo has failed to force himself into Slot’s plans, playing just 22 minutes in the Premier League and Champions League combined.
However, he has started both EFL Cup games and was booked in the victory over Brighton, being subbed off after two fouls by the 64th minute. The Japanese international also made two fouls in the 5-1 drubbing of West Ham.
Last season, Endo averaged 0.52 yellow cards and 2.62 fouls per 90 in the Premier League. He should be afforded a rare start on Wednesday, so expect him to look keen to make the most of this.
Darwin Nunez to be Carded @ 4/1 (bet365)
Darwin Nunez should also start. The Uruguayan’s lack of form has seen game time limited, starting just six times in the Premier League. In 642 league minutes, Nunez has been booked four times for an average of 0.56 per 90. He has also been booked 0.29 times per 90 in the Champions League.
The 25-year-old has often been lambasted for his wastefulness In front of goal, scoring just 0.28 goals per 90 this season – a drop off from the 0.48 last season. However, against a fragile Southampton defence, he should fancy his chances of making it four for the season.
20:00 Thursday
Lucas Bergvall to be Carded @ 9/2 (bet365)
Suspension to Rodrigo Bentancur and Yves Bissouma saw Luca Bergvall handed a rare start in the 0-5 win over Southampton. The Swede looked accomplished in midfield, winning rave reviews. He should retain his place for the visit of Manchester United.
The 18-year-old was booked with his first foul, so he was walking a disciplinary tightrope but showed maturity beyond his years to not make another foul.
In limited Premier League minutes, he is averaging 2.20 fouls committed per 90 while also making two fouls in 62 minutes in the 1-2 win at Coventry in this competition.
Bergvall was also booked in his small cameo in the Europa League against Rangers, making 2.80 fouls and being shown 0.35 cards per 90.
Manuel Ugarte to be Carded @ 12/5 (bet365)
Manuel Ugarte is no stranger to Ruben Amorim, having played under him for a couple of years at Sporting Lisbon. The Uruguayan was benched for the first two Premier League games but now looks to be a mainstay in the side, playing the full 90 in the win over same-city rivals Manchester City. The 23-year-old was tenacious as ever, making four fouls.
In just six Premier League starts, he has been booked three times, making 2.88 fouls per 90. His two EFL Cup performances have seen him make seven fouls in total, while he has made 2.09 fouls per 90 in the Europa League. Against a fast-paced, fluid Spurs attack, it would not be a surprise to see Ugarte resort to some cynical fouls.
