Oli Nixon’s three best bets for this weekend’s Premier League’s action features a selection in Man City’s meeting with Tottenham.
Man City vs Tottenham
With some familiar faces at the top of the Premier League and the lesser spotted wins for newly promoted sides on opening weekend, the top division is back in full flow and with it comes the opportunity for plenty of new betting angles.
Bernardo Silva Over 1.5 tackles for Man City v Tottenham – 8/11 – bet365
Saturday’s early kick off sees Man City entertain Thomas Frank’s Tottenham after both sides recorded comfortable victories on opening day. A change in role last season saw Bernardo Silva deployed as a ball-winning midfielder by Pep Guardiola and as you’d expect, it resulted in a big uptick in his defensive involvements.
When playing in the middle, the Spaniard averages 2.59 tackles per 90 with at least two in nine of his last 10 starts. That includes his four tackles in 66 minutes against Wolves last weekend and with Rodri still out, he’ll likely start there once more against Spurs.
Tottenham were the most tackled team in the Premier League last season, drawing 22.4 per game; however, we’re likely to see this average reduce as Frank’s Brentford side drew just 15.6.
That tactical tweak will take time though and PSG landing 20 in the UEFA Super Cup is promising. Silva’s numbers in head-to-heads add further strength to this bet as he’s had at least two tackles in five of his last six starts against the Europa League champions and so with his new role and current form, he has to be backed to continue that trend.
Burnley vs Sunderland
Dan Ballard Over 0.5 shots for Sunderland v Burnley – Evens – BetVictor
One of the heroes of the first gameweek was undoubtedly Sunderland centre back Dan Ballard who netted with one of his four shots to seal victory against West Ham in a promising display.
Ballard clearly got a taste for goals after his play-off semi-final heroics and was the target for first contact on every set piece for Regis Le Bris’ men. He averaged 1.12 shots per 90 in the Championship last season and 0.82 the season before and so is consistently involved from set plays as was the case against the Hammers.
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Burnley’s 3-0 defeat at Tottenham emphasised the size of the task at hand for them and in that game, they allowed Spurs to generate 0.67 expected goals from dead ball situations and Dutchman Micky van de Ven was afforded two shots from corners.
He averaged just 0.53 shots per 90 last season and so the Clarets failure to contain him means it is difficult to imagine them coping well with Ballard. With a taste for goals and the bravery to throw himself at everything, to get this price for a solitary shot feels like a gift.
Brentford vs Aston Villa
Sepp van den Berg to score anytime for Brentford v Aston Villa – 18/1- bet365
On the topic of set piece threats, as expected given they appointed their set piece coach as their new manager over the summer, Brentford’s best threat against Forest came from restarts.
The Bees put the ball in the box at every opportunity and the constant corners and long throws resulted in centre back duo Nathan Collins and Sepp van den Berg having three shots between them. For van den Berg, this was a continuation of his threat from last season where his 0.7 shots per 90 produced 1.98 expected goals yet he failed to find the net.
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Put simply, he’s long overdue a maiden Premier League goal and with a manager so focussed on effective set piece routines, it looks likely to come sooner rather than later.
Aston Villa are not a prime candidate to target for set piece goals having conceded from just seven of them last season; however, Ezri Konsa’s red card against Newcastle means that he will be suspended for this game and they don’t have a natural replacement, significantly weakening them aerially.
Brentford created nearly half a goal in terms of expected goals across the two meetings last season and so Keith Andrews is clearly capable of devising routines that can trouble the Villans, hopefully Sepp can stick one away this time.
