We’ve picked out three of the best betting tips from our Positive Expected Value (EV) tool ahead of this weekend’s Premier League and EFL action.
Derby County vs. Bristol City
Carlton Morris – Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs. Bristol City
Carlton Morris has made a flying start to life at Derby County, scoring in each of his first two games for the Rams. With Bristol City visiting Pride Park on Saturday, our AI tool has flagged Morris Over 0.5 Shots on Target as a standout value play.
Stat insight: Across his Championship career, Morris averages 0.92 shots on target per home game.
Odds available: 17/20 with Unibet, BetMGM, and Virgin Bet.
AI rating: Our model prices this closer to 2/5, making it an Expected Value of +28.93%.
Bournemouth vs. Wolves
Ki-Jana Hoever – Over 0.5 Fouls Committed vs. Bournemouth
Wolves head to Bournemouth on Saturday, and the AI tool has spotted value in Ki-Jana Hoever to commit at least one foul.
Bet442
Context: Last season, right-backs/wing-backs committed 1.1 fouls per game vs. Bournemouth (well above the league average of 0.79).
Hoever may face David Brooks, who draws 0.8 fouls per home game across his Premier League career.
At Auxerre last season, Hoever committed 1+ foul in 15 of 26 starts, with multiple fouls in 4 of those matches.
Odds available: 4/5 with Unibet and BetMGM (as short as 3/10 elsewhere).
AI rating: Priced at 2/5 by our tool, giving an Expected Value of 29%+.
Fulham vs. Manchester United
Sasa Lukic – To Be Carded vs. Manchester United
Since joining Fulham in 2023, Sasa Lukic has developed a reputation for fouls and bookings in the Premier League.
Disciplinary record: 14 yellow cards in 45 starts, averaging two fouls per game.
Odds available: 5/2 with Unibet and BetMGM (as short as 5/4 elsewhere).
AI rating: Our tool makes this around a 7/4 shot for the Serbian to be booked on Sunday.
