Championship Predictions & Tips: Matthew O'Regan's Best Bets for GW4

QPR DRAW NO BET – 11/10 1.5 POINTS

It’s not often I’ll side with a team straight after a 7-1 hammering, but this weekend I’m making an exception with QPR. Rangers opened the season with a solid 1-1 draw against Preston before a narrow 2-1 defeat away at Watford. Then came the disaster at Coventry, where they collapsed to a humiliating 7-1 loss.

There’s no dressing up that result – it was dreadful. But the underlying numbers paint a very different picture. QPR conceded just 1.27 expected goals in that game while creating 0.61xG themselves, suggesting the scoreline was far harsher than the performance deserved.

Since then, the club has acted decisively in the transfer market, adding Koki Saito, Isaac Hayden, and Rhys Norrington-Davies, along with the arrival of Richard Kone. Suddenly, the attacking options look exciting, with a potential front four of Kone, Karamoko Dembele, Ilias Chair, and Kwame Poku capable of troubling any Championship defence.

This weekend they host Charlton, who came up via the play-offs last season and have started steadily, sitting mid-table with one win, one draw, and one defeat. As you’d expect from a Nathan Jones side, their games have been tight, low-margin affairs – a 94th-minute winner sealed a 1-0 victory over Watford, followed by a 0-0 stalemate at Bristol City and a 1-0 home defeat to Leicester.

The market appears to have overreacted to QPR’s heavy defeat, but with reinforcements in place and attacking talent to call upon, I think there’s real value in keeping the draw onside this weekend.

Over 2.5 Goals – 11/10 – 1.5 points

Millwall vs Wrexham – Millwall Win and BTTS – 10/3 (BIGGER ELSEWHERE BUT BET 365 EP) – 0.5 POINTS

Millwall and Alex Neil looked like a natural pairing—a pragmatic manager at the helm of a pragmatic club. Yet early signs suggest this season may be anything but cautious, with the Lions already showing a more entertaining side.

They opened with an impressive 2-1 win away at Norwich, followed by a 3-0 home defeat to Middlesbrough in which they created enough chances to score at least a couple themselves. That was put right with a resilient 1-0 victory at Sheffield United. Since then, however, Japhet Tanganga has departed for Bramall Lane, leaving Millwall’s defence looking noticeably weaker. Two of their three league games so far have already gone over 2.5 goals.

Their visitors, Wrexham, have been the division’s great entertainers to date. All three of their league fixtures have gone over 2.5, with Phil Parkinson’s side conceding twice in each of them—against Sheffield Wednesday, West Brom, and Southampton. Add to that a wild 3-3 cup draw with Hull and a 3-2 win over Preston, and it’s clear the Red Dragons are struggling to keep things tight at the back while carrying plenty of threat going forward.

With Millwall looking looser defensively and Wrexham’s open style guaranteeing chances at both ends, everything points towards another high-scoring clash at The Den.

Over 2.5 Goals – 11/10 – 1 point

Ipswich’s return to the Championship has been underwhelming so far. After dropping out of the Premier League, the Tractor Boys are still searching for their first win of the season, taking just two points from their opening three games. They began with a 1-1 draw away at Birmingham thanks to a late George Hurst penalty, followed by another 1-1 stalemate at home to Southampton, before slipping to a narrow 1-0 defeat against Preston.

All three of those games have gone under 2.5 goals, which is hardly encouraging for over-backers like myself. However, digging a little deeper suggests there could be value in taking the opposite view now. In their last Championship campaign two seasons ago, Ipswich were one of the division’s most reliable sides for goals, with over 2.5 goals landing in 74% of their matches and over 3.5 goals clicking in 61%. That sort of strike rate points to plenty of volatility and suggests their current low-scoring trend may not last.

Their opponents, Derby, were tipped as potential dark horses this season but have endured a poor start of their own, taking just one point from three games. They opened with a 3-1 defeat at Stoke and followed that up with a chaotic 5-3 loss to Coventry before finally stopping the rot in a 1-1 draw with Bristol City, thanks to a late Colton Morris equaliser. Two of their three fixtures have already gone over 2.5 goals, and both were high-scoring shootouts.

With Derby leaking goals and Ipswich historically delivering in this market, the odds-against price on over 2.5 goals looks too good to pass up. We’re buying low on Ipswich’s goal expectancy and backing the numbers to even out.

BTTS – 3/4 1.5 points

Norwich win and btts – 5/1 – Bigger elsewhere but b365 early pay out

After a disappointing debut campaign, Norwich parted ways with Johannes Hopp Thorup and turned to Liam Manning, who left Bristol City after their play-off semi-final heartbreak. His reign at Carrow Road has been anything but dull.

It began with a 2-1 home defeat to Millwall, followed by back-to-back 2-1 away wins in the Cup against Watford and Portsmouth. Another 2-1 loss came at home to Middlesbrough in the league, before a heavy 3-0 Carabao Cup defeat to Southampton. That means all five of Norwich’s matches under Manning have gone over 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in four of those five—including all three league games.

They now face a Blackburn side who have had an equally chaotic start. Rovers opened with a 1-0 defeat to West Brom despite edging the chances, then suffered a 2-1 home defeat to League One Bradford in the Cup, followed by another 2-1 loss to Birmingham. However, they found their rhythm last time out, producing a dominant 3-0 win away at Hull.

Both sides look fragile defensively but carry plenty of attacking threat, and with the early evidence piling up, this clash has all the makings of another high-scoring affair.

Coventry over 1.5 goals – 10/11 – 1 point

It may seem reactionary, but having just witnessed Oxford’s 6-0 hammering by Brighton at the Kassam, alarm bells are ringing. Something feels badly wrong at the U’s. Gary Rowett’s reputation has always been built on defensive solidity, yet Oxford have looked anything but secure. They’ve lost all three league games so far: 1-0 at home to Portsmouth, 3-2 away at Hull, and 1-0 at Birmingham—matches in which they arguably could have conceded more. Confidence appears to be draining quickly, and the mood around the club looks flat.

They now welcome a Coventry side flying high in third place and unbeaten to start the season. After an opening 0-0 draw with Hull, Frank Lampard’s men have exploded into life in attack, winning 5-3 away at Derby before demolishing QPR 7-1 at the CBS Arena. With a wealth of attacking options and confidence surging, the Sky Blues will be eager to exploit Oxford’s fragility.

This looks a mismatch in current form, and Coventry’s firepower could easily prove too much for a despondent Oxford side.