Macca is back with his three best bets for Saturday's Premier League matches, including a 4/1 shot in the Everton vs Aston Villa match.
Saturday 3pm - Everton vs Aston Villa
Jack Grealish to Assist @ 4.8 with Coral/Ladbrokes - 4.5 with Paddy Power (1pt)
Jack Grealish is a new man since leaving Man City. 4 Assists in 2 starts along with being awarded Premier League player of the month for August. This is the Grealish we all knew from when he was at Villa.
I’ve backed him in both games for an assist and I’m going in again as his prices are still too big as Everton take on his old club Aston Villa. In his two Premier League starts for the Toffees, he’s posted expected assists of 0.70 and 0.59, converting those into two assists in each game.\
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This Everton system gives him the licence to drive at opposition defences and create more high quality chances compared to just passing backwards when he was at City due to opposition sitting in a low block most games.
Saturday 3pm - Everton vs Aston Villa
McGinn Over 1.5 fouls @ 2.0 with Paddy Power (Use Super Sub feature if applicable) (1pt)
Sticking with the topic of Grealish and his licence to run at defenders, that should force Villa players into more fouls. He’s been the most-fouled player in the Premier League since 2019/20, and he’ll spend most of this game operating off the left and sometimes drifting centrally. That puts him directly into the zones John McGinn will cover, with Boubacar Kamara still expected to miss out. Also in those areas are Dewsbury-Hall (2.33 fouls won per 90 at Everton) and Gueye (1.09).
McGinn loves to put himself about, but his foul numbers have dipped when he’s played wider (1.34 per 90). In Kamara’s absence last time out though he was used in a double pivot tasked with breaking up play and committed two fouls in the process. Against Everton’s ball carriers, the matchups look ideal for him to get caught again, and the price on him committing fouls looks excellent value.
Saturday 20:00 - Brentford vs Chelsea
Dango Outtara 2+ Fouls @ 3.6 Paddy, 3.8 PricedUpBet/Star Sports, 3.25 Sky, Betfair, 2.63 Bet365 (1.25pts)
Dango Outtara has noticeably upped his foul output since joining Brentford, adapting quickly to Keith Andrews’ more physical, combative style of play. He committed four fouls on his debut against Villa, followed that with one against Bournemouth in the EFL Cup despite only playing 30 minutes, and then added another against Sunderland in his most recent appearance.
Midnite
Here, he’s likely to line up directly against Marc Cucurella. The Chelsea full-back averaged 1.14 fouls drawn per 90 last season and has already won four fouls across his three Premier League starts this campaign. With Outtara still adjusting to the defensive responsibilities in this system and being asked to press aggressively, I think we’re getting great odds.
