With only a Murillo injury halting a clean sweep from last week’s picks, Oli Nixon goes again this weekend with four selections across the Premier League.
Wolves vs Leeds
Anton Stach 2+ shots for Leeds v Wolves – 13/8 – Betvictor – 1 unit
After a tough start to the season in terms of fixtures, Leeds will be eyeing a trip to struggling Wolves as a chance to get their first away victory of the season.
If they’re to do so, Anton Stach will be central to their chances with the creative midfielder so far taking ten shots in four Premier League starts.
He’s been happy to pull the trigger from range with five of those shoots coming from outside the box and a career average of 1.3 shots per game shows he’ll continue to shoot on sight.
Wolves have conceded an average of 13.8 shots per game so far this season, with only Burnley and Brentford averaging more. With so much at stake in this early season relegation scrap, Leeds will be keen to capitalise on the hosts’ defensive frailty and Stach can be the beneficiary.
Burnley vs Nottingham Forest
Elliot Anderson o51.5 passes for Nottingham Forest v Burnley – 10/11 – Boylesports – 3 units
As mentioned already, Ange Postecoglou’s possession heavy style is already being implemented at Forest. They had 46% possession at the Emirates, a game which saw Elliot Anderson dropping deep as a playmaker and making a massive 71 passes.
This was then backed up in midweek where Ryan Yates played in this role in the EFL Cup and made 70 passes and so there’s a clear uptick in defensive midfielder passes under their new poss.
Anderson has also made good pass totals all season with counts of 88, 75 and 76 and so with a new manager who prioritises possession, this looks a particularly low line.
Burnley are a side who dominated the ball at Championship level under Scott Parker but have struggled to translate that to the top tier, averaging just 33% of the ball.
Opposition defensive midfielders have been allowed to dictate play without much pressure with pass totals of 52 for Paper Sarr, 102 for Granit Xhaka, 84 for Bruno Fernandes and 94 for Ryan Gravenberch.
Anderson will fulfil this role for Forest on Saturday and having already shown how comfortable in possession he is this season, he should go a long way beyond this line.
Fulham vs Brentford
Joachim Andersen to be fouled 1+ times for Fulham v Brentford – 4/5 – Skybet/Paddy Power – 1 unit
As an angle that provided us a winner last weekend, it would be rude not to attack Igor Thiago fouls for Brentford again.
The combative Brentford striker made another two fouls against Chelsea on Saturday evening and was booked for a third game running, just eight minutes in.
He’s now committed 11 fouls in four starts at an average of 2.89 per 90 and so is consistently attempting to disrupt opposition centre backs with his physical approach.
Fulham centre back Joachim Andersen has so far been fouled three times in his first four starts of the season and an average of 0.66 fouls drawn per 90 last season is also encouraging.
He plays on the right side of Marco Silva’s centre back pairing and given that the right sided central defender has been fouled five times across Brentford’s six matches in all competitions this season, he’s nicely priced to be on the end of Thiago’s clumsy challenges.
Arsenal vs Man City
Abdukodir Khusanov to commit o0.5 fouls for Man City v Arsenal – 5/6 – Bet365 – 1 unit
A surprise in Man City’s team news for the Manchester derby last weekend saw regular centre back Abdukodir Khusanov deployed as a right back.
The Uzbekistan international looked uncomfortable when left one-on-one with Patrick Dorgu and committed two fouls in the game.
He also landed this bet in his only other start of the season against Brighton from centre back where he was booked for that foul too.
If Khusanov starts at right back again, he’ll be tasked with containing the tricky Eberechi Eze who drew 1.77 fouls per 90 last season.
The attacking midfielder has also been fouled three times in 183 minutes of Premier League action for his new club and so is still proving difficult to handle.
Even if Khusanov reverts to centre back, he’ll be up against Viktor Gyokeres who has won 2.05 fouls per 90 in a Gunners shirt and so there’s plenty of candidates for him to bring down to land this bet.
