Maccas picked out his four best bets and a bet builder for this Sunday's Premier League clash between Newcastle and Arsenal.
16:30 Sunday - Newcastle vs Arsenal
Newcastle and Arsenal meet at St James’ Park today. The Magpies have struggled for fluency in attack since Alexander Isak’s departure, scoring just three goals in their opening five games, but Eddie Howe’s side remain defensively solid with three straight clean sheets.
The return of Anthony Gordon from suspension could bring back some much needed energy, while Bruno Guimaraes and Joelinton will also be back in the starting 11 to bring some familiarity back.
Arsenal meanwhile come into this game frustrated after letting a huge opportunity slip in their 1-1 draw with Manchester City last weekend. Bukayo Saka looks set to start after building fitness in midweek.
New signing Viktor Gyokeres has settled quickly with three goals but doesn’t look the most convincing on the ball and Eberechi Eze’s spark in midfield has softened the blow of Noni Madueke’s injury.
History is not on Arsenal’s side as they have lost four of their last five trips to Newcastle, all with minimal goals scored. With both teams strong defensively but inconsistent in attack, we could be in store for a pretty cagey game.
Under 0.5 Goals @ 10/1 Skybet
This game has all the makings of a low scoring afternoon. Newcastle have kept three clean sheets on the bounce in the league, but they’ve only scored three goals all season which is the joint second fewest in the league. Arsenal have been equally solid at the back, conceding just twice in five games and recent trips to St James’ Park have been a nightmare for them with them scoring just two goals scored in their last 5 visits.
With both sides struggling in the final third, relying on defensive organisation and past meetings in Newcastle often turning into cagey affairs a 0-0 looks a real possibility. Under 0.5 goals offers big value here for me.
Eberechi Eze Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ 5/6 (Paddy Power, includes Super Sub)
Eze has quickly settled into Arsenal’s attack and already looks like one of their main creative sparks. He’s confident carrying the ball into dangerous areas and isn’t shy about pulling the trigger from range or inside the box. With Noni Madueke sidelined and Martin Ødegaard / Saka only just returning from injury, Arteta will lean on Eze to provide the direct threat in the final third.
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Newcastle’s defence has been hard to break down, but they do allow space for midfield runners, and Eze’s ability to shoot off both feet and outside the box makes him a constant danger.
He had 4 shots on target in his 3 starts in an Arsenal shirt and also had a shot on target when coming on from the bench against Man City. He should be awarded with a lot of minutes here.
Martín Zubimendi – To Be Carded @ 7/2 (Bet365)
Zubimendi has taken on the holding midfield role for Arsenal, and that naturally leaves him exposed in games where the midfield battle is tough. He’s already been booked in 2 of his 6 league appearances, showing he’s not shy of a tactical foul when needed.
On Sunday, he faces he most fouled midfield in the league. Tonali, Joelinton and Guimarães draw a combined 5.26 fouls won per 90 minutes, which is a huge number and highlights how often opponents get caught out against them. With Newcastle’s midfield driving transitions and Gordon or Murphy running off them, Zubimendi will be under constant pressure to break things up.
Zubimendi looks like excellent value to find his way into the book @ 4.50
Bruno Guimarães Over 1.5 Fouls @ 1.80 (Bet365)
Guimarães has been a foul machine lately, averaging 2.75 fouls per 90 in the league this season and 2.15 per 90 across his last 20 games in all competitions. He’s cleared this line in 7 of his last 8 league games and faces tough job against Arsenal today. The value here is great with Bet365 at 1.80, while other firms have this as short as 1.30. Guimarães has history in this fixture too with going over 1.5 fouls in 4 of his last 5 against the Gunners.
Macca's Bet Builder Tip for Newcastle vs Arsenal
Under 1.5 Goals - Bruno Guimarães Over 1.5 Fouls - Martín Zubimendi Over 1.5 Fouls
This ties everything together. We’ve already covered how cagey this fixture tends to be, with both sides looking stronger defensively than in attack. Goals should be at a premium. Add in the physical and foul heavy midfield battle where Guimarães and Zubimendi are both prime candidates to rack up fouls and I think we have a very generous 11/1 bet builder.
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