Oli Nixon picks out four value selections from tonight's Champions League action.
20:00 Tuesday
Odin Bjortuft to commit o1.5 fouls for Bodo/Glimt v Tottenham – 3/1 – Bet365 – 0.5 units
Bodo/Glimt centre back Odin Bjortuft has committed two or more fouls in seven of his last 14 starts at an average of 1.29 per 90. Including qualifying, he’s made five fouls in three Champions League starts and so is clearly not afraid to get stuck in.
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Playing on the right side of Bodo’s central defensive pairing, Bjortuft will be tasked with containing Richarlison and Xavi Simons who so far this season have drawn 4.17 fouls per 90 between them. Richarlison in particular loves a physical battle and in Spurs’ first group game against Villarreal, Juan Foyth made two fouls in the same role. Given Bjortuft’s form and the match-up he’s faced with, the Norwegian is a chunky price to do the same.
20:00 Tuesday
Nicolas Otamendi o0.5 shots for Benfica v Chelsea – 5/4 – Ladbrokes – 1 unit
Nicolas Otamendi’s career average of 0.8 shots per 90 demonstrate clearly what a threat the veteran Argentine has consistently been for club and country. In a Benfica shirt this season, he’s managed 0.92 shots per 90 including taking four shots across two Champions League qualifiers against Fenerbahce. He had nine shots in 12 starts in this competition last season and is a constant threat from set pieces.
Those set plays are key to this bet as Chelsea have looked incredibly vulnerable defending such situations this season. Across eight matches in all competitions, the Blues have allowed opposition centre backs to fire off a massive 16 shots and with seven of the last eight starting defenders against them getting efforts at goal, Otamendi is a must back at this price.
20:00 Tuesday
Yunus Akgun o1.5 shots for Galatasaray v Liverpool – 23/10 – Betway – 1 unit
Liverpool are looking uncharacteristically leaky at the back at the start of this campaign and a tough trip to Turkey feels a dangerous place to travel to with such fragilities. The Premier League champions have given up over ten shots per game across all competitions and have conceded in four straight games and so the hosts will fancy their chances of getting at them, especially with the Reds’ wounded by their last-gasp defeat at Palace on Saturday.
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If Galatasaray are to get plenty of shots off, Yunus Akgun looks a likely source having pulled the trigger 2.5 times per 90 this season. He’s landed this bet in each of his last five starts and having scored in three straight games, he should be full of confidence. One of those goals game in the first group game away at Frankfurt and the Turkish midfielder should be ready to shoot on sight once more.
Leroy Sane o1.5 tackles for Galatasaray v Liverpool – 5/4 – Bet365 – 1 unit
A player who has been impressing for his defensive work more than his attacking productivity is former Man City winger Leroy Sane who has made 2.33 tackles per 90 this season, with at least two coming in six of his eight starts. The German has been working hard off the ball as part of Galatasaray’s press and if you include Bet365’s ‘sub-on, play-on’ offer, this bet would have landed in five of his last six games.
Liverpool are drawing 17.3 tackles per game in domestic action and with Arne Slot’s men likely to dominate the ball, Sane’s pressing could be key to triggering any counter attacks. The last time Liverpool faced a side with traditional wingers, Ndiaye and Grealish of Everton both made two tackles and Sane looks to have the work-rate to match their tally.
