Macca provides his best bets for the Barcelona Vs PSG game this evening and picks out a 33/1 Bet Builder.
20:00 Wednesday
Barcelona and PSG meet on Wednesday night in a Champions League game that somehow already feels like a knockout tie.
Both sides began the group stage with wins, Barca edging Newcastle 2-1 thanks to a Marcus Rashford brace (two superb goals by the way), while PSG easily beat Atalanta 4-0 and the result here could shape the battle for top spot.
Hansi Flick’s team remain unbeaten domestically and have won nine of their last 12 European home matches, though their only loss in that stretch came against PSG.
The visitors meanwhile are defending champions but arrive with a lengthy injury list with Marquinhos, Ousmane Dembélé, João Neves and Fabián Ruiz all out and Kvaratskhelia a major doubt.
For Barcelona, Lamine Yamal is expected to play after assisting on his return from injury at the weekend, while Robert Lewandowski and Rashford will be accompanying their attack.
PSG could very well try to sit in here rather than their usual approach of really going for it in a bid to outscore the opposition.
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Barcelona vs PSG Bet Builder Tips
Macca's bet builder tips for Barcelona vs PSG features Under 3.5 goals + Nuno Mendes card + Lamine Yamal assist
It can be found at a best price of 33/1 with bet365 (19/1 elsewhere).
Under 3.5 Goals
This Bet Builder mixes three of my favourite angles.
Under 3.5 goals at near evens is appealing because PSG may adopt a damage limitation approach. With key attacking players out injured, the reigning champions might sit deeper which makes a lower scoring game plausible despite how these two teams usually play.
Nuno Mendes To Be Carded
Nuno Mendes picking up a card is another logical leg considering we’re backing the fouls as a single (see below).
Tasked with stopping Yamal and dealing with overlapping runs from Kounde, Mendes is likely to commit at least one tactical foul.
Yamal draws over 2 fouls per 90, and Kounde is fouled in every start this season, so the chance of Mendes being booked is high here. I’m adding the card to the bet builder in case he only commits 1 foul but that is booking worthy.
Lamine Yamal Assist
The Yamal assist rationale will be explained in more detail in my best bets section below.
Mendes is a hard player to dribble past and this could just end up increasing the amount of crosses Yamal delivers into the box.
0.25 Units advised.
Barcelona Vs PSG: Macca's Best Bets
Nuno Mendes 2+ fouls @ 3.4 Betway (still value down to 2.5 at bet365 with super sub) (1u)
This looks huge. Mendes will spend long spells directly up against Yamal. The Barca winger is averaging around 2 fouls drawn per 90 and constantly drives at defenders, he’s already forced plenty of bookings this season.
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Mendes won’t just have to deal with him either; Kounde will also be overlapping on that flank. Kounde has been fouled in every single one of his starts this season and averages 1.17 fouls won per 90. That double threat massively increases the chances Mendes ends up resorting to cynical or tactical fouls to slow them down.
With PSG weakened and Barca targeting that channel on the right, this price looks way too big. 3.4 implies less than a 30% chance of landing, but the matchup suggests it’s comfortably more likely. Even at 2.5 on Bet365 it still holds plenty of value.
Lamine Yamal to register an assist @ 4.20 Betway (value down to 3.20+) (1u)
Yamal has been Barça’s biggest creative spark this season. He leads the squad in expected assists, averaging 0.36 xA per game over the past 20 matches, the highest in the team. That’s translated into 4 assists in his last 7 games, showing his underlying numbers are turning into end product. He’s also delivering 4.67 crosses per 90 mins, making him a constant supply line for Lewandowski and Rashford.
The matchup looks favourable too. PSG’s left-hand side is weakened with the PSG injuries, which should give Yamal space to exploit.
At 4.2 with Betway, there’s strong value and it’s still a bet down to 3.2+ if you’re betting with any other firms.
