Using the projections from our Positive Expected Value tool, we've picked out five plays for the weekend's football.
How does Postive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Our Positive Expected Value tool, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily.
This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
In these weekly column, we pick out five of the best bets for the weekend's football from the Positive EV Tool.
So far this football season, our Expected Value best bets articles are 6.71pts in profit.
Bet 1 - Saturday 3pm: Marcus Forss (Bolton) - Anytime Goalscorer vs Peterborough
1pt - Best Odds 19/10 with BetMGM & Virgin Bet
Marcus Forss scored his first two goals for Bolton in their last home game against Wigan and had four shots with two on target in their last match against Northampton.
They host Peterborough United on Saturday and our Positive Expected Value tool has highlighted the Finnish to score as a play.
Our Expected Value tool has the probability of this bet landing at 45.48%, meaning the 19/10 available with BetMGM & Virgin Bet provides 31.89% of Positive Value. We'd recommend only taking this price, as the other odds currently available do not provide a Positive Value.
17:30 Saturday - Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayern Munich
Bet 2 - Ritsu Doan - Over 1.5 Shots vs Bayern Munich - 1pt - 33/20 with BetMGM & Virgin Bet
Our second Postitive EV play for the weekend is Eintracht Frankfurt's Ritsu Doan to have 2+ shots vs Bayern Munich.
Doan has recorded 2+ shots in four of five Bundesliga starts this season and will be leading the Frankfurt attack to try and cause an upset against Bayern.
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Our Postitive EV model has the probability of this bet landing at 73.34%, so the 33/20 available provides us with a juicy 28.35% of Positive EV. We'd recommend playing this bet at any price above evens (1/1).
14:00 Sunday - Wolves vs Brighton
Bet 3 - Yankuba Minteh - Over 1.5 Tackles vs Wolves - 1pt - 21/20 with Ladbrokes and Coral
Brighton's Yankuba Minteh has been a tackling machine this season, recording 10 through his opening six games of the season, that includes recording two or more in his last four starts.
The Gambian international also recorded two tackles in this fixture last season.
Our Positive EV tool has put the probability of this bet landing at 74.37%, meaning the 21/20 available with Ladbrokes and Coral provides 52.46% of Positive EV. This is the only price available we recommend backing this bet at.
16:30 Sunday - Hamburg vs Mainz
Bet 4 - Kaishu Sano - Over 0.5 Shots vs Hamburg - 2pts - 17/20 with 10Bet
Our Positive EV play of the weekend is Kaishu Sano to have at least one shot vs Hamburg on Sunday.
The Japanese midfielder has been on a hot shooting streak to start the season, having at least one in five of his six Bundesliga starts (10 shots in total).
Our Positive EV tool has the chance of this bet landing at 78.03%, meaning the 17/20 available with 10Bet gives us 44.36% of Positive EV. We advise playing this bet no lower than 1.7 (7/10).
16:30 Sunday - Brentford vs Manchester City
Bet 5 - Yegor Yarmolyuk - Over 1.5 Tackles Won vs Man City - 1pt - 1/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral
Brentford's Ukrainian international, Yegor Yarmolyuk, has recorded two or more successful tackles in four of his six Premier League starts this season.
In his 15 Premier League starts last season, Yarmolyuk had 2+ tackles in 12 Premier League starts.
Our Positive EV tool has this bet's probability of landing at 78.59%, so the even money price available with Ladbrokes and Coral gives us a juicy 57.18% of Posititve Value.
