Oli Nixon picks out his best bets from the Premier League gameweek 8 action.
15:00 Saturday
Dan Ballard o0.5 shots for Sunderland v Man Utd – 1/1 – Ladbrokes – 1 unit
Ballard came off the bench last weekend and still managed to land our shot bet and given his importance to this side, I can’t see him being benched again on Saturday. He’s now taken six shots in four Premier League appearances at an average of 3.23 shots per 90 and with Sunderland adopting the long throw as most clubs have done this season, he’s likely to get a good ten chances to get on the end of one or a corner. He averaged 1.12 shots per 90 last season too and so his data this season is no flash in the pan, he’s just a monster in the air.
If we’re taking centre backs for shots, Man Utd are an excellent team to target given that they’ve conceded nearly four shots from set plays per game this season and have conceded three goals from such situations. Such is the mess at Old Trafford that you’d imagine set piece defending is low down the priority list in training and it shows with them allowing four shots from opposition centre backs in their last two games.
14:00 Sunday
Dan Burn 2+ fouls committed for Newcastle v Notts Forest – 2/1 – Betway – 0.5 units
Tino Livramento’s injury means that Dan Burn will likely be deputising at left on Sunday as he did in midweek in Belgium. It doesn’t take a genius to imagine how difficult a time a six-foot-five centre back will have in one-on-one battles against the most agile players on the pitch out wide and having already committed 1.67 fouls per 90 this season from centre back, this price looks like one we can attack.
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Key to this bet is that Burn will likely be facing either Dilane Bakwa or Dan Ndoye who last season drew 2.55 and 4.23 fouls per 90 and so he’s in for a tough afternoon regardless of who starts on Forest’s right-hand side. The last three left backs to face Forest in the Premier League have all landed this bet with two of those being booked and Burn’s credentials make him look highly likely to be making it four in a row.
Sven Botman o0.5 shots for Newcastle v Notts Forest – 5/6 – Bet365 – 1 unit
Back to the long throw/centre back shots combo! An interesting tactical note from Newcastle’s trip to Union St Gilloise in midweek was that Dan Burn has been given the role of hurling the ball into the box from throws which means he’s not in the box to get on the end of them. With Fabian Schar also still recovering from concussion, Sven Botman becomes the most likely target for these set pieces. He managed 1.09 shots per 90 last season in limited minutes and has nine career goals to his name and so is a capable threat from dead ball situations, especially if he’s the only real target beyond Woltemade who you’d expect to be heavily man-marked.
I highlighted in this column last week how horrendous Postecoglou sides are at defending set pieces and they duly went and conceded an Omar Alderete headed goal from a free kick to punctuate that point. They’ve now conceded five goals from set plays in Ange’s four games in charge and only West Ham have conceded more shots from set pieces than them this season. With Botman one of Newcaste’s only credible threats, he looks a nice price to benefit from Forest’s fragility.
14:00 Sunday
Daniel Munoz to be carded for Crystal Palace v Everton – 3/1 – Bet365 – 0.5 units
Another match-up which looks ripe for fouls is Daniel Munoz up against Jack Grealish down Everton’s left-hand side on Sunday. Grealish looks back to his blistering best and is once again terrorising full backs every week, drawing 4.25 fouls per 90 in a Toffees shirt. His opposing right backs have made nine fouls between them across his last three Premier League starts, with two of those being booked.
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Munoz himself has been carded twice in six games this season and on ten occasions in 37 last season and so is no stranger to the referee’s notebook. He’s made 1.4 fouls per 90 already this season and given that Grealish will go down at the slightest contact, he’s likely to follow the pattern of recent full backs against him; racking up the fouls and being booked for the persistent infringements.
16:30 Sunday
Michael Kayode o1.5 fouls committed for Brentford v Man City – 3/1 – Bet365 – 0.5 units
Michael Kayode to be carded for Brentford v Man City – 11/2 – BetMGM – 0.5 units
Our final full back who seems likely to draw plenty of attention from the officials on Sunday is Brentford’s Michael Kayode. The Italian has the unenviable task of containing Jeremy Doku who has drawn 2.41 fouls per 90 this season and looked the most dangerous player in City’s attack. Doku is a master at drawing contact from defenders and has forced six separate right backs to be carded this season.
Since his arrival in the Premier League, Kayode has averaged 1.2 fouls per 90 and has been booked in three of his 19 appearances. He made two fouls last week up against the heavily fouled Patrick Dorgu and was fortunate to avoid a card and given Doku’s record for drawing infringements, his prices look chunky on Sunday.
Dan Burn, Daniel Munoz and Michael Kayode to be carded Trixie – 83.63/1 – BetMGM – 0.25 units (1 unit total stake)
Given the above match-ups, it would be rude not have a go at the big odds trixie which covers the three doubles and the treble, hopefully all three of them bring their fouling boots on Sunday!
