After winners at 17/20, 5/6, 2/1 and 3/1 in this column before the international break, the return of the Premier League means another opportunity to get stuck in to the prop markets to find more winners.
Tip 1: Trevoh Chalobah o0.5 shots for Chelsea v Nottingham Forest – 11/8 – 1unit
Tip 2: Trevoh Chalobah o0.5 shots on target – 9/2 – 0.5 units
As long as Ange Postecoglou remains in post at Nottingham Forest – which might not be much longer – we can continue to attack centre back shots against them. His side have conceded the second most set piece shots of any Premier League side and in his seven games in charge so far, opposition centre backs have amassed the following shot counts; 2, 2, 4, 1, 1, 5, 3. Eleven of those shots have been on target too and so they’re consistently giving up high quality chances from dead-ball situations which means we have to take a Chelsea defender.
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Given Chelsea’s injury issues at centre back, we can expect Trevoh Chalobah to come straight back into the side after his suspension. He’s been an aerial threat all season, firing off eight shots in Premier League action this season at an average of 1.49 per 90. He’s also scored twice already so should be full of confidence and with 75% of his efforts coming from set pieces, he looks the most likely candidate to take advantage of Forest’s inability to defend set plays.
Tip 3: Mats Wieffer o1.5 fouls committed for Brighton v Newcastle – 10/11 – 1 unit
Another regular angle of attack each week is to take on Anthony Gordon’s direct opponent for fouls. The winger is drawing 2.32 fouls per 90 this season as opposition full backs struggle to deal with his pace and direct runs in behind. Fresh off a first goal for England under Thomas Tuchel, he should be full of confidence and the fact that he was fouled six times in 202 minutes of action against Brighton last season means he’ll no doubt be tightly marked again.
Mats Wieffer is likely to be the player man-marking Gordon due to Joel Veltman’s injury issues and his data suggests he’ll have a tough afternoon. Wieffer committed 2.04 fouls per 90 in his debut Premier League campaign and has followed that up with an average of 1.89 per 90 this season and so it looks like he’ll do well to avoid the attention of the officials given his consistent record of offences.
Tip 4: Ryan Sessegnon o1.5 fouls committed for Fulham v Arsenal – 21/20 – 1 unit
Tip 5: Ryan Sessegnon to be carded – 6/1 – 0.5 units
Another full back who is likely to have a difficult 90 minutes on Saturday is Fulham left back Ryan Sessegnon. The utility player has a habit of diving in when defending one-on-one when deployed in a deeper role and faces one of the trickiest wingers in the division in Bukayo Saka. Arsenal’s number seven has drawn 2.33 fouls per 90 this season and excluding the EFL Cup tie with Port Vale, the last five left backs to face him have all made at least two fouls, with three left-sided opposition players booked across those games.
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Sessegnon has a consistent record for infringements himself, committing 2.07 per 90 this season and landing at least two offences in four of his six Premier League starts. He’s only come up against Arsenal once, in a 13 minute substitute appearances at the Emirates last season and
he duly made three fouls in that short period which also suggests that he’ll struggle with the assignment of Saka on Saturday evening.
Tip 6: Joao Palhinha o0.5 shots for Tottenham v Aston Villa – 19/20 – 1 unit
Despite being renowned for his defensive work in the middle of the park, Joao Palhinha’s career record of 0.9 shots per game for club and country alone make this price an appealing one. Throw in the attacking freedom he’s been given at Spurs where he’s taken 1.5 shots per 90 across all competitions and it looks even better. The Portugese bruiser has had at least one effort at goal in six of his eight starts and found the back of the net on three occasions and so is clearly being encouraged to make as many attacking contributions as possible.
Aston Villa also look like a good team to get against for shots given their concession of 14.33 shots per game on their travels this season. They gave up a massive 20 shots at Everton and allowed Sunderland 14 efforts despite playing for over an hour with ten men. Unai Emery’s men have also conceded the fourth most set piece shots in the division and given that three of Palhinha’s shots have come from restarts, he should get plenty of chances for a solitary shot.
Tip 8: Igor Thiago o1.5 fouls committed for Brentford v West Ham – 11/10 – 1.5 units
It wouldn’t be a Premier League Best Bets column without an appearance from everyone’s favourite Brazilian brute would it?! Only two players have committed more fouls than Igor Thiago in the top division this season and his average of 2.57 offences per 90 across all competitions means that getting odds against for him to make two in any game simply must be backed. Before two uncharacteristically quiet games against both Manchester clubs in recent weeks, he’d landed this bet in each of his six starts this season, in line with his career history which shows that he’s a physically imposing target-man.
West Ham’s centre back pairing of Max Kilman and Konstantinos Mavropanos will both be up for the physical battle that Thiago provides and will be instructed to get tight to him by Nuno Espirito Santo and look to dominate in the air. The last time the Brazilian forward faced a side managed by Nuno, he committed three fouls in a combative tussle with Murillo and Milenkovic and was kept very quiet and so given that West Ham’s new boss had success with that approach, we can expect similar tactics here which will only frustrate our man leading to more fouls.
