Macca picks out some value from the Premier League action in gameweek 8.
Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth
Tip 1: Will Hughes To Be Carded @ 4.33 (1u - Bet365 Super Sub)
Don't take odds below 3.3.
This price immediately stood out. Will Hughes is consistently one of Crystal Palace’s most likely players to go into the book, yet Bet365 list 23 players at shorter odds to be carded. That looks like a clear misprice.
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The 30 year old midfielder has been booked three times in six games this season or effectively four in six if you include Super Sub, given that his potential replacements are equally prone to fouls. It’s no anomaly either as last season Hughes collected 11 yellow cards in 33 appearances.
Aggressive in challenges and constantly involved in breaking up play, Hughes regularly attracts the referee’s attention. At 4.33, this looks an excellent value angle for another card.
Man City vs Everton
Tip 2: Erling Haaland To Score A Brace @ 4.6 (Various) 1u
Don't take odds less than 4.00.
This is an angle I’ve gone back to a few times this season and there’s every reason to revisit it here. Haaland is in frightening form for both club and country, scoring in seven consecutive games for City and eleven of his last twelve overall. In that stretch he’s produced four braces.
His underlying numbers remain elite, averaging over 1.0 xG per 90 this season, remarkable consistency and one I'm not surprised about as it’s in and around the numbers he’s been hitting the last few seasons. With Grealish missing and Everton likely to fade once City break through, Haaland should get plenty of chances to add another multi goal performance.
Tottenham vs Aston Villa
Tip 3: Matty Cash Over 0.5 Shots @ 1.85 (Ladbrokes, Coral) 1.72 (Bet365, Betfair, Sky, Paddy) 1u
Cash looks full of confidence in front of goal after netting three times recently for club and country. His attacking intent is clear in both his heat maps and shot data as he’s registered at least one attempt in nine of his last eleven games.
What makes Cash appealing for this line is his willingness to shoot from anywhere. He doesn’t wait for the perfect opening, he’ll take on efforts from range or tight angles when the chance presents itself. At close to evens, this price looks very fair for a player who’s consistently getting into advanced positions and isn’t shy about pulling the trigger.
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
Tip 4: Gibbs-White over 1.5 shots @ 2.0 (BetVictor) 1.72 (Bet365) 1.25u
Gibbs-White’s shot profile is really consistent this season, he’s averaging 2.24 shots/90 with six of eight starts clearing the 1.5 line. Stretch the sample out and it barely moves: 2.26 shots/90 over his last 30 games, which tells you this isn’t just a good start to the season.
A couple of useful data points: he took seven shots across two fixtures vs Man City in this sample (shows he’ll still get chances against better sides), and he hit this market last time out against Newcastle. He’s an active shooter, gets into advanced areas and looks to pull the trigger from range.
At around even money for a 1.5 line, I think this is a great play and I wouldn’t put you off taking a higher line.
