Betting expert, Oli Nixon, has picked out five tips for Thursday's Champions League football.
Tip 1: Giuliano Simeone o1.5 fouls committed for Atletico Madrid v Arsenal – 2/1 – Bet365 – 1 unit
Tip 2: Myles Lewis-Skelly o1.5 fouls committed for Arsenal v Atletico Madrid – 16/5 – Ladbrokes/Coral – 1 unit
Every so often, these elite European ties throw up a player clash that looks absolutely certain to involve plenty of fouls and that’s definitely the case where Giuliano Simeone and Myles Lewis-Skelly are concerned.
Arsenal’s left back has had his minutes limited this season but is still averaging 4.09 fouls drawn per 90 and in his only two starts he’s been brought down six and four times. He’s also looked fairly rusty defensively, making three infringements against Olympiakos too. He’s averaging 2.39 offences per 90 this season and so we can expect the officials’ attention to be drawn to his area of the pitch throughout the game.
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In Simeone, Lewis-Skelly has an excellent opponent for foul involvements as the Argentinian winger has been fouled 2.3 times per 90 and committed over one per game himself too. Four separate left backs facing Simeone have been booked this season, further emphasising his danger and so with two players who both like to go down at the slightest touch, they’re both likely to be hearing the sound of the referee’s whistle during the game.
Tip 3: Richard Rios o1.5 shots for Benfica v Newcastle – 37/20 – 10Bet – 1 unit
Having lost both of their opening group games, Benfica travel to Newcastle in desperate need of a result and therefore will need to be looking to attack at every opportunity. The Portugese side have been generously priced for shots all round by bookmakers, however, it’s central midfielder Richard Rios who catches the eye.
Known better for his defensive work, Rios has been given more attacking freedom this season, averaging 3.07 shots per 90 domestically. That’s also translated well into European action as he’s managed four efforts across his two starts so far, meaning that he’s landed this bet in 10 of his last 13 starts across all competitions. Even better, those shots have come from all over the place with 14 in regular play, 10 from inside the box, 13 outside the box and four headers. He also takes free kicks so should get chances from there too.
Newcastle have conceded shot counts of 17 and 19 in the Champions League so far and also gave up 20 at home against Arsenal and so there’ll be plenty of chances for Rios to pull the trigger.
Tip 4: Enzo Barrenechea o1.5 fouls committed for Benfica v Newcastle – 11/10 – Bet365 – 1 unit
Having mentioned physical battles in Madrid earlier, the middle of St James’ Park should be just as feisty as we have a Newcastle trio who draw 5.46 fouls per 90 up against a Benfica three that draw 4.79.
Enzo Barrenechea will have a key role to play in breaking up Toon attacks and his record of 1.81 fouls per game this season suggests that he’ll do so by any means possible. The Argentine midfielder has picked up eight bookings in 14 starts across all competitions and has committed eight offences across his last four games.
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As Barrenechea plays on the left side of Benfica’s midfield pair, he should be directly up against Newcastle’s most fouled player in Bruno Guimaraes. When you pair his record with the fact that each of the last three players in this position to face the Magpies have made at least two fouls, the price on offer looks a generous one.
Tip 5: Santiago Mourino o1.5 fouls committed for Villarreal v Man City – 5/6 – Spreadex – 1 unit
Another player likely to have a tough evening on their hands is Villarreal’s makeshift right back Santiago Mourino. He’ll be up against the electric Jeremy Doku who has been one of Man City’s brightest sparks in attack and drawn 2.5 fouls per 90.
More comfortable in a central role, Mourino has struggled this season, making 2.26 fouls per 90 and being booked in three of nine starts and sent off in his most recent appearance against Real Madrid. On that day he faced another heavily fouled opponent in Vinicius Junior and given that he’s landed this bet in 67% of his games this season, he’s clearly a player we can rely on for infringements.
