Gameweek four in the Champions League means the importance of the games starts to ramp up as teams start to get desperate in their quest for qualification for the knockout stages. With this in mind, we’ve got four angles based on players getting stuck in with plenty on the line.
Tip 1: Thilo Kehrer to be fouled o0.5 times for Monaco v Bodo/Glimt – Evens – Bet365 – 1 unit
Monaco centre back Thilo Kehrer has an excellent record of 1.46 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions. The German defender has been fouled 12 times across his last five starts and has landed this bet in all of those and so to be getting even money for a single foul drawn feels like a gift.
Opposing Kehrer will be Bodo/Glimt’s Kasper Hogh and Jens Petter Hauge who have committed 2.13 fouls per 90 between them and will both look to put pressure on him out of possession. With these sides sat next to each other in the table and both outside the top 24, it’s a huge game for both which should result in lots of late challenges, hopefully in Kehrer’s direction.
Tip 2: Geovany Quenda to be fouled o1.5 times for Sporting v Juventus – 13/8 – Bet365 – 1 unit
Another player well adept at drawing late contact is Sporting winger Geovany Quenda who has been felled 1.89 times per 90 this season. The Portugese attacking midfielder is tricky and pacey and has been fouled seven times across his last two games in the Champions League. This bet has cashed in five of his last seven starts with him drawing 16 offences across those games.
Tasked with containing Quenda will be Juventus’ Filip Kostic and Teun Koopmeiners who have committed 0.77 and 2.08 infringements per 90 respectively this season. Koopmeiners in particular is playing out of position at left centre back and has made seven fouls across his last three starts and should find Quenda tough to deal with.
Tip 3: Aurelien Tchouameni to make o1.5 tackles for Real Madrid v Liverpool – 11/10 – Bet365 – 1 unit
A favourite angle of mine across Arne Slot’s time in charge at Anfield has been central midfield tackles from Liverpool’s opposition. Across the Red’ last 12 games in all competitions, opposing players in the middle of the park have combined for a massive 67 tackles with 19 separate players making at least two.
The main defensive midfielder shielding Real Madrid’s backline is likely to be Aurelien Tchouameni and with so many attack minded players ahead of him, he’s likely to have a busy evening. The Frenchman has made two or more dispossessions in five of his last eight starts and so is more than capable of getting stuck in and with Liverpool drawing so many in central areas, his price to do so again looks a generous one.
Tip 4: Joao Palhinha to be fouled o1.5 times for Tottenham v FC Kobenhavn – 12/5 – Bet365 – 1 unit
Joao Palhinha has done an excellent job of shoring up Tottenham defensively and in doing so, he’s clearly irked the opposition plenty as he’s been fouled two or more times in five of his last seven starts. The Portugese brute has made more tackles than any other Premier League player and often his last-ditch challenges result in a frustrated pull back from his opponent.
Not only do we have a heavily fouled player in Palhinha but his direct opponent Lukas Lerager is one of the few midfielders in Europe who can match his defensive work-rate, making 3.09
tackles and, more importantly, 1.84 fouls per 90. With such a combative affair in midfield, Palhinha looks an excellent price to be felled at least twice for a fourth consecutive game.
