Oli Nixon's Thursday & Friday World Cup Qualifier Tips & Best Bets

Tip 1: Ezri Konsa to be fouled o1.5 times for England v Serbia – 6/4 – Bet365 – 1 unit

Despite England having comfortably sealed their path to the World Cup, Thomas Tuchel is insistent that his Three Lions side will be taking these games seriously. Marc Guehi’s injury also means Ezri Konsa is likely to start at centre back and with the Aston Villa defender drawing 1.42 fouls per 90 for his club this season, this price for him to be felled twice stands outs. When representing England under Tuchel, Konsa has been fouled 1.95 times per 90 and has landed this bet in four his six starts to add further encouragement.

Up against Konsa will likely be Serbia’s front two of Dusan Vlahovic and Luka Jovic who have committed 1.09 fouls per 90 between them in qualification and whilst those aren’t great numbers, Konsa’s propensity to go down at the slightest touch to earn a cheap free kick means he can draw fouls from anyone. With Serbia desperate to climb above Albania into second place to secure a play-off spot, they should be pressing high from minute one and that can only help our cause in bringing fouls on Konsa.

Tip 2: Strahinja Pavlovic to be fouled o0.5 times for Serbia v England – 10/11 – Bet365 - 1 unit

At the other end of the Wembley pitch, Serbia defender Strahinja Pavlovic is equally adept at drawing late contact. The giant centre back has drawn 1.52 fouls per 90 across this qualification campaign, being brought down at least once in five of his six starts and twice in the reverse fixture. His aerial prowess makes him Serbia’s best defender of balls into the box and such is his dominance from crosses that he is often caught late by strikers after heading them clear.

A key part of Thomas Tuchel’s tactical approach has been an energetic press from the front when England lose the ball and as a result, their attackers have been committing plenty of offences. Opposition centre backs against the Three Lions have been fouled seven times across their last five games and given Pavlovic’s record, this looks a great price for him to draw a solitary infringement.

Tip 3: Dara O’Shea o0.5 shots for Ireland v Portugal – 6/4 – Ladbrokes/Coral – 1 unit

A crucial game in deciding the outcome of Group F takes place in Dublin as group leaders Portugal travel to third placed Ireland. The visitors can secure their path to next year’s competition with a win but will expect a tough evening after needing a 91st minute winner to see of the Boys in Green in October on home soil. Across their last five trips on the road, the Portugese have given up 59 efforts at goal and so getting an Ireland player on side for shots feels like the value play.

Much of Ireland’s attacking threat during this qualifying campaign has centred around set pieces with defensive trio Nathan Collins, Jake O’Brien and Dara O’Shea combining for 3.25 shots per 90 between them. The latter of those has been a constant threat from long throws, corners and wide free kicks and with five shots in his last two home games, feels the pick of the bunch at the prices on offer. The Ipswich defender is in good form for his club with 0.93 shots

per 90 this season and with Hungarian centre back Attila Szalai afforded three shots and a goal in Portugal’s last game, there just might be a weakness for Ireland to exploit.

Tip 4: Jamie Reid o1.5 fouls committed for Northern Ireland v Slovakia – 5/4 – William Hill

In one of the tightest qualifying groups across the competition, Northern Ireland are still in with a shout of progressing and this trip to Slovakia is crucial to their chances. Michael O’Neill’s boys can leapfrog their opponents with a win in Kosice and so should be throwing everything at their opponents. If they’re to do so, persistent offender Jamie Reid is likely to rack up at least a couple of infringements given his record of 1.71 fouls per 90 for his country as he has done in three of his last four starts, including the previous meeting. The Stevenage striker can be petulant and we can expect him to be snapping into challenges on Slovakian defenders in an attempt to win the ball high up the pitch.

Slovakia know that a point will further solidify their play-off place and so will be looking to slow the game down by drawing fouls at any opportunity. Up against Reid will be the duo of Adam Obert and the experienced Milan Skriniar who have drawn over three fouls per 90 between them in qualifying. Across the host’s four games in qualification, opposition strikers have committed 12 fouls between with all five landing this bet and with Reid’s data, he looks likely to add to those numbers at a generous price.