Macca has picked out three betting angles across Tuesday's Champions League matches featuring Chelsea and Man City.
Chelsea v Barcelona
BTTS in Both Halves - 0.5pt
Best odds of 13/2 on William Hill during publishing.
This is a high variance angle, but the matchup really suits it. Chelsea and Barcelona both play such end-to-end football with free flowing attacks, but they struggle at the back.
Chelsea are averaging 2.10 goals for and 1.1 against in their last 20 games whilst Barcelona’s are more hectic with 2.8 goals for and 1.35 goals against. Both teams, however, have seen an increase in goals conceded in the Champions League.
Barcelona’s rises to 1.8 and Chelsea’s rises to 1.50. Flick’s team have scored in 24 straight Champions League matches; their high defensive line invites chaos early, but they also create enough pressure to force late goals the other way.
Their last game against Brugge went 2-1 at HT, then 3-3 FT. With both attacks stacked and both defences unreliable, 7.5 looks a huge price.
Man City v. Bayer Leverkusen
Jeremy Doku Over 2.5 Fouls Won - 1.5pt
Best odds of 11/8 available at bet365 during publishing.
Jeremy Doku continues to be one of the most fouled players in Europe, and his numbers this season make this line look a touch generous. Across all competitions, he’s averaging 2.86 fouls won per 90, but that rises to 3.15 per game once you factor in the fouls won by the substitute who replaces him, crucial for bets where the “super sub” promotion applies.
His Champions League profile is even stronger. Doku has cleared this line in 3 of his last 4 UCL appearances, and if you include super sub credit, it becomes 4/4, with foul counts of 4, 6, 3, 3.
Midnite
His dribbling volume forces defenders to engage, and even the more disciplined ones end up mistiming challenges simply due to the number of 1v1s he creates.
The price likely looks inflated because Leverkusen’s full-backs haven’t been committing many fouls this season, but that hasn’t stopped Doku all year. He’s consistently drawn multiple fouls against “clean” defenders, and Leverkusen’s wide structure should give him plenty of isolated duels with his man.
Josko Gvardiol Over 0.5 fouls committed - 1.5pt
Best odds of available of 10/11 at Paddy Power during publishing.
This price feels out of line with the data. Gvardiol has committed at least one foul in seven straight games, and his season average sits at 1.25 fouls per 90 across all competitions. He’s been far more aggressive in recent weeks, stepping into duels earlier and tighter, which naturally increases his foul risk.
We targeted him for fouls in his last Champions League start, and he delivered five, comfortably clearing the mark. Seeing 2.10 for just a single foul is generous when several other bookmakers are already 1.55 or lower on the same selection.
The matchup adds to the appeal. He’s likely to see plenty of Patrick Schick, who is averaging 1.50 fouls won per game once you include the super-sub element. Schick pins defenders well, plays with his back to the goal, and forces physical contact.
Given Gvardiol’s recent trend, his season average, and the opponent he’s dealing with, Over 0.5 fouls at 2.10 is far too big in my opinion.
