Oli Nixon shares four expert Champions League betting tips for Tuesday’s fixtures, highlighting standout value selections and key angles for punters targeting midweek European action.
25th November – Champions League Best Bets
As the group stage of the Champions League passes the halfway mark, games become more important, and the looming elimination of one third of the sides in the competition should make matches feistier. With that in mind, we’re hunting out value in the player foul markets, and there’s plenty to go around.
Enzo Barrenechea to commit over 1.5 fouls vs Ajax – 1pt
Best odds of 2/1 available on Ladbrokes when publishing.
The early kick-offs bring a tie between the two sides, propping up the group as Benfica travel to Ajax with both currently pointless. However, a win for either team could put them within one point of the top 24, and so there’s plenty to play for.
In Enzo Barrenechea, we have a midfielder who will be getting stuck in, having made 1.46 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season. The Argentine’s record makes this a backable price alone; however, when you consider his direct opposition, it looks like an even better opportunity.
Barrenechea will be facing Kenneth Taylor and Oliver Edvardsen who between them, have been fouled 5.05 times per 90. Our man will therefore be kept busy throughout the game and will do well to avoid at least two infringements.
Matheus Silva to be fouled over 1.5 times vs Napoli – 1pt
Best odds of 4/5 available at bet365 when publishing.
Qarabag defender Matheus Silva is the most fouled player in the Champions League this season, drawing a huge 3.4 offences per 90. That includes having been felled at least twice in four of his six starts in the competition, where he’s been brought down six times against Benfica and seven times against Kobenhavn.
He clearly goes down at the slightest contact, and so again, this price appeals.
Up against Silva will be Napoli’s left side combination of Miguel Gutierrez and Noa Lang, who, between them, this season have committed two fouls per game.
Midnite
Three of the last six right-backs to face the Italian champions have landed this bet, and given how easily Silva goes over, he’ll likely continue the trend.
Enzo Fernandez to be fouled over 1.5 times vs Barcelona – 1pt
Best odds of 5/6 available on Skybet when publishing
Another player well adept at drawing late challenges is Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernández. The Argentinian midfielder has been fouled 1.69 times per 90 across all competitions and has had at least two offences committed against him in all four of his Champions League appearances.
This is in keeping with his average of 1.5 fouls drawn per game last season, and so he’s clearly a player who consistently draws attention. As always, Fernandez’s match-up also plays a key part in the value of this bet as he’ll be facing persistent offender Marc Casado, who has made 2.12 infringements per 90 this season.
The young Spaniard has been booked twice in European action already, and given his inexperience, an end-to-end game could lead to him making plenty of cynical challenges.
Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg over 1.5 fouls committed vs Newcastle – 1pt
Best odds of 17/10 availble on Ladbrokes when publishing
The final player we need to draw the attention of the officials on Tuesday evening is Marseille midfielder Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg. The Dane has always had a reputation for physical duels in the middle of the park, and his record of 1.23 fouls per 90 this season is healthy enough to get his infringements on side.
The home side desperately needs three points to help them progress to the knockout stages, and should be flying in all over the park, which further helps our cause. What makes Hojbjerg’s fouls such a strong angle of attack is that Newcastle’s midfield includes some of the strongest foul drawers in the competition.
Bruno Guimaraes, Sandro Tonali and Joelinton have drawn a massive 6.06 offences per 90 in Champions League action this season, with five separate opposition defensive midfielders landing this bet. With what’s at stake and the opposition he’ll face in the midfield battleground, Hojbjerg feels likely to do the same.
