Matthew O’Regan has his four best EFL bets, including a 21/4 that has a 100% record this season.
Chesterfield vs Swindon
Over 2.5 Goals – 4/5 – William Hill – 1.25 points
Two of the most unpredictable teams in the league face off in Derbyshire. Chesterfield sit sixth, unbeaten in six in the league. Paul Cook’s side have scored 31 goals this campaign- the third most in the league, while conceding 27 – the most in the top 15. The Spireites game are averaging 3.4 goals. Only Cheltenham and Harrogate have conceded more xGA on average than Chesterfield over the last ten games.
Despite the high-goal count in games, only 9/17 (53%) of their games have seen over 2.5, but a match against an equally as topsy-turvy Swindon side should yield goals.
The Robins have seen a league high 71% games seeing over 2.5 goals. Ian Holloway’s side have scored 29 goals and conceded 23, for an average of over 3 goals a game. Both managers will look to get at teams, so it should be an entertaining game at the SMH Group Stadium.
Doncaster vs Peterborough
Peterborough Double Chance – 8/11 – William Hill – 1.25 Points
If I were to have backed Peterborough last month, readers would’ve thought I was crazy. Fast forward a month and I’m looking to back Posh in any capacity I can.
Darren Ferguson was dismissed as manager after a poor start to the season, with Luke Williams hired as his replacement. The 44-year-old won his first four games in charge, beating front runners Cardiff (cup) and Stockport (3-0) as well as Wimbledon 5-0 and Crawley in the EFL Trophy. A narrow 0-1 loss to rivals Stevenage was a blemish on their perfect start under Williams, but The Posh are purring on all fronts.
Still riding the wave from last season’s promotion, Doncaster started the season strongly taking 16 points from a possible 21. However, since the 3-1 victory over Yorkshire rivals Bradford, Donny have taken just three points from the next ten and are without a victory since early September. Grant McCann’s side are in dire straits, and he will be dreading facing his old side on Saturday.
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Middlesbrough vs Derby
Joe Ward To Score/Assist – 21/4 - BetMgm 0.75 points
Injuries have plagued Joe Ward’s Derby career, with the 30-year-old close to retiring after back-to-back setbacks. However, the marauding wing back is enjoying a run in the side, starting the last five.
In the 1-3 win at Sheffield United, Ward assisted Morris for the opener, repeating the feat at home to Hull, as well as assisting Patrick Agyemang away at Blackburn and centre back Sondre Klingen Langas in the collapse against Watford.
While he failed to make it five assists from five, Ward scored a header to put The Rams 0-1 up, meaning he has registered a goal contribution in all five starts.
Millwall vs Southampton
Leo Scienza Over 2.5 Shots – 5/4 – Bet365 – 1 point
Southampton are flying under interim manager Tonda Eckert, winning all four games, scoring 13 goals. While the underlying data under Will Still was strong, The Saints failed to convert their chances – something the popular German has changed.
The improvement of form has also coincided with Leo Scienza being brought into the side. The talented Brazilian was a fan favourite at Heidenheim and averaged 2.97 shots per 90 last campaign in the Bundesliga.
Scienza this year in the Championship has averaged 2.69 shots, hitting 3+ shots in 6/10, making the quoted price with Bet365 value.
