Macca finds the value in tonight's Premier League action.
Leeds v Chelsea
Enzo Fernández Shot on Target @ 1.91 (1u) Bet365
Enzo has been at the heart of this Chelsea side all season. He’s already on seven goal contributions and is actually taking the most shots per game in the squad with 1.89 per 90. Leeds should allow plenty of ball dominance for Chelsea, which usually gives Enzo licence to drift higher and pull the trigger. He’s averaging 0.95 shots on target per 90 and has hit the target in eight straight starts. At this price, backing him to land another at near even money feels too high.
Cucurella Over 0.5 Shots @ 2.0 (1u) Bet365
Sticking with the Chelsea game, Cucurella looks a solid price for a single shot. He’s taken at least one in 50% of his starts this season across all competitions, so on the surface evens might look about right. But three of the games where he didn’t shoot were against Arsenal, Barcelona and Liverpool, fixtures where you’d naturally expect him to hold a deeper line. Leeds is a completely different setup. Chelsea should control the ball for long spells, which usually pushes their full backs much higher. The market disparity also stands out here, with some firms as short as 1.40 for the same bet.
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Burnley v Palace
Tyrick Mitchell Over 2.5 Tackles @ 2.50 (Ladbrokes) (1u)
Another big pricing gap here. Mitchell is as short as 1.40 with some firms and 1.62 on Bet365, so the Ladbrokes number sticks out immediately. The Bet365 line makes more sense given the data: he’s averaging 3.42 tackles per 90 this season and has gone over two tackles in 11 of his 16 starts. At 2.50, we can comfortably assume this is mispriced.
Lesley Ugochukwu Over 1.5 Fouls Won @ 2.0 (Bet365 1u)
Sticking with the Burnley game, Ugochukwu looks a great price for fouls won. He’s cleared this line in 6 of his 9 starts and is averaging 2.12 fouls won per 90. Paddy Power have this as low as 1.44, and I can see why. The matchup is great. Palace’s midfield commit plenty of fouls, and today’s expected rotation points to Will Hughes spending a lot of time around Ugochukwu. Hughes commits 1.69 fouls per 90, and if he’s subbed, the likely replacements Kamada or Lerma are both frequent foulers as well. No matter who he ends up facing, Ugochukwu should get enough contact to draw a couple here.
