Oli Nixon has four selections from tonight's Premier League football.
Arsenal vs Brentford
Nathan Collins Over 0.5 shots for Brentford v Arsenal – 27/10 – William Hill – 1 unit
With Brentford so strong from set pieces, their centre backs are always worth a look in the shot markets. The Bees possess the threat of Michael Kayode’s long throws and when you add in corners and free kicks, they’re averaging 4.46 shots from dead ball situations per game which is the third most in the division. Nathan Collins has been key to that threat with the Irishman managing 0.69 shots per 90 and five in his last six starts.
Arsenal have the best record in the Premier League when it comes to defending restarts, conceding just over two shots per game from such situations, however, with their imposing centre back pair of Gabriel and William Saliba both missing, they’re likely to be more vulnerable. That proved to be the case when they allowed Trevoh Chalobah to head in from a corner for ten-man Chelsea at the weekend and given that set pieces are the biggest part of Brentford’s attacking armoury, this looks an inviting price.
Wolves vs Nottingham Forest
David Wolfe Over 0.5 fouls committed for Wolves v Nottingham Forest – 5/6 – Bet365 – 1 unit
After a quiet start to life in the Premier League in terms of fouls, David Wolfe has committed three fouls across his last two starts for bottom side Wolves. The Norwegian wing back is averaging 0.85 fouls per 90 since arriving in England and given that this data is similar to his time in the Eredivisie, we can expect this trend to continue. Of particular interest is that his fouls so far have come up against tricky wingers in Ismaila Sarr and John McGinn and he faces a similar opponent here.
Up against Wolfe will be Forest winger Dan Ndoye who has been brought down an average of 1.01 times per 90 for the Midlands side. He was felled much more often in Italy where he drew 4.23 fouls per game last season and with the pace he possesses, he’ll cause Wolfe plenty of problems. Eight of the last ten opposition left backs to face Forest have made at least one foul and so it’s a problem area for their opponents and this price cannot be ignored.
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Mo Salah Over 0.5 fouls committed for Liverpool v Sunderland – 11/10 – Betway – 1 unit
With Liverpool in such poor form, desperation is starting to show with the Champions committing 12 fouls at West Ham on Sunday. A player who will be particularly frustrated with criticism of his recent performances leading to him being dropped for that game is talisman Mo Salah. The Egyptian has made 0.6 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season and whilst that isn’t a huge average, this bet is all about his direct opponent.
Facing Salah will be Sunderland left back Reinildo who has proved to be something of a foul magnet this season, drawing 2.14 fouls per 90 for the Black Cats. These numbers are consistent with his last season in La Liga where he was felled 1.73 times per game and so he clearly needs no invitation to go down. The last 12 right wingers against Sunderland have combined for 16 infringements between them with 10 of those landing this bet and so hopefully the angry Egyptian can oblige.
Leeds vs Chelsea
Brenden Aaronson o1.5 tackles for Leeds v Chelsea – 6/5 – Bet365 – 1 unit
In what looks a highly competitive game at Elland Road, Chelsea should dominate the ball leading to plenty of Leeds tackles. One player who has been consistently getting stuck in for the home side is Brenden Aaronson who is winning the ball back 2.8 times per 90 this season. The American has made at least two tackles in four of his last five appearances and has been particularly busy at home where he’s landed this bet in three of his four starts.
Only four Premier League sides are dispossessed more often than Chelsea’s 18.1 times per game and as Aaronson will have to track the runs of Garnacho and Cucurella, he’ll have plenty of defending to do. With Gnonto and Noah Okafor returning to full fitness, Aaronson will need to impress to keep his starting spot and what better way than to ensure his defensive work-rate keeps the Blues quiet?
