Aston Villa vs Arsenal

Merino Over 2.5 Shots @ 3.50 bet365 (1.25u)

This price is enormous. Bet365 are miles clear of the rest of the market, and if Merino starts up front again as several predicted lineups suggest, then the value is obvious. Even better, we get Gyökeres covering the super sub angle.

Merino has taken 10 shots across his last three games and has scored in back to back matches. He’s in form, he’s getting into good positions, and 3.50 for three shots is a standout price. If you want something with a bit less variance, the 1.83 line for 2 or more shots is also a very solid option.

Konsa Over 1.5 Fouls Won @ 3.25 bet365 (1u)

Konsa is excellent at drawing contact under pressure, and that’s exactly what Villa will need against Arsenal’s aggressive press. He regularly invites that pressure when carrying the ball out from the back or shielding it, and forwards tend to nibble because winning it high up is worth the risk.

He’s drawn 2+ fouls in 5 of his last 7 matches, and he’s done the same in four straight games against Arsenal when we factor in the super sub rule. He’ll likely be challenged by either Merino (2.13 fouls conceded per 90) or Gyökeres (1.07 per 90), both of whom are perfectly capable of giving this angle a chance.

Newcastle vs Burnley

Bruno Guimarães Over 1.5 Shots @ 2.10 (1u) bet365

Bruno is averaging 1.41 shots per 90 this season, and this matchup should push that number higher. Burnley are still adjusting to Premier League level and are conceding 16 shots per game, 34% above the league average. Newcastle typically dominate territory at home, so Bruno should get enough advanced touches to take at least two shots here.

Blackburn vs Sheffield Wednesday

Sean McLoughlin 1+ Shot @ 1.80 Ladbrokes, coral (1.25u)

Jumping down to the Championship for a similar angle: targeting teams that give up an absurd volume of shots. Sheffield Wednesday concede 21.3% more shots than the league average, and that alone puts this bet on the radar.

McLoughlin is averaging 0.97 shots per game and should have even more opportunity here. Blackburn are expected to control the game, which usually means plenty of corners, ideal for a centre back who will spend more time in the box when his side is on top. He’s had at least one shot in 9 of his last 12 matches, so the consistency is there.