The EV Eagle has picked out five tips from today's football and a 8/1 bet builder tip in Man United vs Bournemouth.
The EV Eagle has landed on Oddschecker!
In this new daily tipping series, the EV Eagle picks out their best bets from our Positive Expected Value tool, one of the premium tools available to Oddschecker+ subscribers.
In today's article, the Eagle has picked out five of the best EV bets from today's football.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Yesterdays Results:
Jeremy Doku - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - VOID @ 57/50
Tyrick Mitchell - Over 0.5 Fouls - 1.5pt - WON @ 17/20
Antoine Bernede - Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt - WON @1/1
Andrea Cambiaso - Over 0.5 Shots - 1.5pt LOST @ 1/1
Aurelien Tchouameni - Over 1.5 Tackles - 1.5pt LOST @ 8/11
Rolling P/L: +3.61
Tip 1: Bet Builder – Bournemouth vs Man United – 0.5pt
- Antoine Semenyo to Score – 23% EV
- Bryan Mbeumo 1+ Foul – 13% EV
- Tyler Adams 2+ Fouls – 25% EV
Best Price: 8/1 with Bet365 (Super Sub)
Man United vs Bournemouth
Tip 2: Marcus Tavernier – Over 1.5 Shots vs Manchester United – 1pt
Tavernier has been consistently active in front of goal, registering 2+ shots against Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham, Aston Villa, and Newcastle this season. Recent shot counts when starting read: 3,3,3,3,1,4.
Man United have done well to keep their shots conceded count low in recent games: 8,11,14,3,10 but these have been against sides all averaging some of the lowest shots tallies int he league with four of them in the bottom 7 for that department. Bournemouth are a much more active shooting side.
The AI probability is 59% versus 54% odds implied probability, giving a 9% Positive EV at 17/20 with Coral.
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Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby
Tip 3: Harry Amass – Over 2.5 Tackles vs Derby – 1pt
Amass has been a tackling machine this season, hitting 3+ tackles in nine of his last fifteen games and five of his last six starts.
He registered nine tackles in his last game against Watford, the second-highest single-game tally in the Championship this season.
Tackle counts this season: 9,3,1,4,3,4,1,3,5,3,2,1,0,4,2.
We have super sub on our side with this bet too as bet365 have the best odds.
With a 49% AI probability vs 42% odds implied, this bet has strong value at 11/8 with bet365.
Roma vs Como
Tip 4: Diego Carlos – Over 1.5 Tackles vs Roma – 1.25pt
Diego Carlos has hit 2+ tackles in 50% of his last 16 games and in three of his last five.
Away from home, this tally becomes even more impressive: he has achieved 2+ tackles in six of his last eight away outings.
Roma average the third most possession in the league (58%), Como average the most possesion in the league - there is a chance it turns into a scrap for the ball - these two sides are also first and second for tackles against then this season and como rank third for tackles for - I expect challenges.
With AI probability at 58% versus 50% implied, this bet carries a 16% Positive EV at evens (1/1) with William Hill.
Man United vs Bournemouth
Tip 5: Bryan Mbeumo – Over 0.5 Fouls vs Bournemouth – 1.25pt
Tip 6: Bryan Mbeumo - To Be Carded vs Bournemouth - 0.25pts
Mbeumo has seen his foul output spike recently, recording 2,1,2,1,0,1,0,2,1 fouls in his last nine games.
He has also been booked in three of his last four appearances, showing increased aggresiveness in recent weeks.
The AI probability is 64% versus 57% implied by the odds, producing a 13% Positive EV at 3/4 with Coral.
For a bigger swing, Mbeumo to be carded is available at 6/1.
