Macca has picked out five bets of interest for this weekend's Premier League action.
Man City v West Ham
Tip 1: Jarrod Bowen Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Man City - 1pt
Best odds of 87/100 with SpreadEx when publishing.
Jarrod Bowen continues to be West Ham’s most reliable attacking outlet and this price still looks generous. He’s landed a shot on target in 14 of his 17 league appearances this season, averaging just over one per game, and crucially he’s played the full 90 minutes in every match.
There’s also a pricing angle here. BetMGM don’t offer super sub, which often means their odds are slightly bigger than rival firms. Bowen who usually gets 90 minutes wouldn’t usually benefit from super sub anyway so we can take advantage of that here.
Tactically west ham being underdogs sets this up well. Bowen has been used as a right sided striker in West Ham’s last two games and has scored in both, registering three shots on target across those matches. Against Manchester City, West Ham are likely to defend deep and play on the counter, a scenario where Bowen becomes even more central to everything they do going forward. Expect him to carry a higher share of West Ham’s attacking threat than in a normal fixture compared to other players in the team.
Tip 1: Joško Gvardiol Over 0.5 Fouls Committed vs West Ham - 1pt
Best odds of 7/10 with SpreadEx.
Alternative if you don’t have SpreadEx: Over 1.5 Fouls @ Bet365 @ 3.50 is nice.
Sticking with Man City v West Ham, there’s some solid value in the fouls market here. Jarrod Bowen, who we’ve already highlighted is averaging 1.71 fouls won per game this season and will be very useful if he’s deployed up front again. Bowen is direct, quick and happy to invite contact and that brings Joško Gvardiol into play. The City defender is averaging 1.17 fouls committed per 90 this season and has made at least one foul in 10 of his last 11 starts. His recent foul counts read 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 5, 1, 4, 1, which shows both consistency for the 0.5 line and some ladder opportunity for those wanting to take on the higher 1.5 line.
If Bowen is again tasked with leading the line and attacking on the break, Gvardiol is likely to be dragged into uncomfortable 1v1 situations here.
Newcastle v Chelsea
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Tip 3: Bruno Guimarães Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Chelsea - 1pt
Best odds of 11/5 with betway when publishing.
This price looks too big on a player who’s becoming increasingly involved in Newcastle’s attacks. Bruno Guimarães is averaging 1.59 shots per 90 this season and his recent numbers are even better, with 11 shots across his last four matches.
More importantly for this market, those attempts are turning into shots on target. He’s hit the target six times in that four game spell, including one from four shots in midweek against Fulham. His recent shot on target breakdown reads: 1 vs Fulham, 2 vs Sunderland, 0 vs Leverkusen and 3 vs Burnley.
At around odds of 3.0, you’re effectively being paid triple your stake for a single shot on target from a midfielder who’s clearly not shy about taking a shot. With several other bookmakers pricing this closer to 1.80, the discrepancy is hard to ignore and makes the value look even better if the bookies can’t agree on a price.
Tip 4: Anthony Gordon Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Chelsea - 1.25pts
Best odds of 4/5 with bet365 & betway when publishing.
Sticking with the same game and the shots on target market, Anthony Gordon stands out at a fair price. Harvey Barnes started midweek against Fulham and in Eddie Howe’s system that often points towards Gordon returning to the starting XI this time around.
When Gordon starts, his numbers are very good. He’s averaging 1.23 shots on target per 90 this season and has recorded a shot on target in 81% of his starts across all competitions.
There’s also built in insurance here. If Gordon is subbed off, it’s likely Barnes comes on in his place and Barnes carries similar shot stats. Taking this with Bet365 or William Hill means the super sub promotion applies, so the bet rolls onto the substitute if Gordon is taken off.
Add in the fact Gordon has scored three goals in his last four starts and is clearly playing with confidence in front of goal, and this line looks really nice value.
Aston Villa v Man United
Tip 5: Ian Maatsen Over 0.5 Fouls Won vs Man United - 1.25pts
Best odds of 1/1 with bet365 when publishing.
Ian Maatsen has recently cemented his place in Aston Villa’s starting XI, starting the last three Premier League matches ahead of Lucas Digne, and there’s little reason to expect Unai Emery to change a winning formula. Villa have won nine games in a row since their defeat to Liverpool on 1 November, so continuity looks likely again this weekend.
Maatsen is averaging 1.21 fouls won per 90 this season and plays in a role that naturally invites contact, especially when Villa look to progress the ball quickly down the left. He often gets chance to fill the space out wide on the Villa attacks when Morgan Rogers drifts inside.
With AFCON ruling out Amad Diallo, Manchester United are likely to use Diogo Dalot and Matheus Cunha on the right side. That pair combine for 1.71 fouls committed per 90, and I think we’re getting good odds here for at least one of them to be on Maatsen.
