How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results

Leo Østigård – Over 0.5 Shots vs Cagliari - 1pt 19/20 - WON
Gabriele Zappa – Over 1.5 Tackles vs Genoa - 1.5 pts 8/11 -VOID
Kike Salas – Over 1.5 Tackles vs Celta Vigo - 0.75 pts 3/4 - WON
Matteo Bianchetti – Over 1.5 Tackles vs Juventus - 1pts 1/1 - LOST

Running P/L: +7.8pts

Hamburg vs Bayer Leverkusen

Alex Grimaldo – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

17/20 with Betway at the time of publishing.

65% AI probability | 54% Odds implied | 20% Expected Value

Grimaldo’s shots when starting read: 4, 2, 0, 0, 2, 2, 3, 1, 6, 3, 1, 4.

He has scored 10 goals in all competitions for Leverkusen this season and, operating as a left wing-back, isn’t afraid to get forward. He’s found the net in three of his last five games. Hamburger SV have allowed 10% more shots than the league average, making this a strong spot for Grimaldo to register multiple attempts.

Stuttgart vs Frankfurt

Ansgar Knauff – Shots on Target Angles

Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 0.75 pts
59/50 with BetMGM at the time of publishing.

Over 1.5 Shots on Target - 0.25 pts
7/1 with Unibet at the time of publishing.

57% AI probability | 46% Odds implied | 23% Expected Value (For one SOT)

Knauff has managed a shot on target in seven of his last ten starts, while his last three games read 2, 1, 3 shots on target. He’s recorded at least one in 11 of his last 20 games, and has hit 2+ in two of his last four, giving both lines appeal at the prices.

Dortmund vs Werder Breman

Julian Brandt – Shooting Angles

Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt
4/5 with BetMGM at the time of publishing.

Over 1.5 Shots on Target - 0.5 pts
4/1 with BetMGM at the time of publishing.

65% AI probability | 54% Odds implied | 23% Expected Value (For 2+ Shots)

Brandt is in a rich vein of form, scoring four goals across his last four performances. He’s hit the target in each of his last five games, shooting twice in every one of those appearances.

They face a side that has conceded the fourth most shots in the Bundesliga this season, so opportunities should be there again. Notably, Brandt has managed 2+ shots on target in two of those last five games, giving the bigger-price angle real upside.