Man United vs Man City

Antoine Semenyo o1.5 fouls committed for Man City v Man Utd – 23/20 - BetMGM – 1 unit

Antoine Semenyo gets his first taste of the Manchester derby on Saturday lunchtime and with a record of 1.9 fouls per 90 in the Premier League this season, it’s safe to assume he’ll be at home in a hostile atmosphere. The Ghanian has committed the second most offences of any player in the top division and with him already averaging 1.75 infringements per 90 in a City shirt, there’s no sign of him curbing this habit.

City’s new signing has the perfect match-up for this bet in Man Utd left back Patrick Dorgu who has drawn 2.93 fouls per 90, with only Jack Grealish felled more regularly. Dorgu is a master at drawing late contact and consistently sees his opposite number landing this bet and given that he was felled four times in the reverse fixture, this looks the perfect combination at a lovely price.

Liverpool vs Burnley

Ibrahima Konate o1.5 tackles for Liverpool v Burnley – 23/20 – 10Bet – 1 unit

Despite their status as heavy underdogs in most fixtures this season, Burnley’s Armando Broja has been keeping opposition centre backs busy, being dispossessed 2.29 times per 90. The Albanian is often relied upon by Scott Parker to hold the ball up and carry it forward to relieve pressure at the back and this has resulted in opposing central defenders combining for 30 tackles across the Clarets last eight games.

With an average of 1.51 tackles per 90, Ibrahima Konate looks the most likely Liverpool defender to be tasked with dispossessing Broja. He was forced into four tackles in the reverse fixture and has been especially combative at Anfield in recent weeks where he’s made ten tackles in his last five league starts. Burnley are likely to be penned in their own half for much of this game which will mean any counter attacks will be reliant on an isolated Broja holding onto the ball, only further increasing the likelihood of Konate taking it off him.

Sunderland vs Crystal Palace

Brennan Johnson o0.5 fouls committed for Crystal Palace v Sunderland – 8/11 – Bet365 – 2 units

This bet is a slightly shorter price than I’d usually pick for the column but such is the value, I think it’s one we can heavily attack. Brennan Johnson is averaging 0.82 fouls per 90 in league action this season but since arriving at Palace, he’s been whistled five times and been booked in both starts. He’s still getting himself up to full fitness having barely played for Spurs before his move and that rustiness often leads to late challenges.

The key to this bet is in the opposition as Reinildo is back from AFCON and likely to start for Sunderland. The left back has consistently been drawing fouls ever since his arrival in England to the tune of 2.11 per 90 and the majority of these have come from opposing right wingers. Even if Reinildo doesn’t start, Johnson is likely to face Dennis Cirkin who is also heavily fouled and so whomever he is up against, he’ll do well to avoid a single foul.

Tottenham vs West Ham

Matty Cash to be carded for Aston Villa v Everton – 9/2 – 10Bet – 0.5 units

Regular readers to this column will know the drill here – back Jack Grealish’s opponent to be booked. However, whilst that is the crux of this selection, there’s a bit more reasoning than usual. Something about this match-up with his former team-mate brings out a ruthless streak in Matty Cash with the Pole being booked in the reverse fixture but also in their previous clash when Grealish was at City. In fact, on both those occasions, Cash and Grealish have both seen yellow and so it’s clearly a decent rivalry with plenty of physicality.

Grealish’s involvement in this pick writes itself as he’s the most fouled player in the Premier League at 3.03 fouls drawn per 90 and right backs against Everton this season have found their way into the referee’s notebook on eight occasions. In what looks an intriguing battle down Everton’s left side, the price on offer for Cash to follow suit having done so in both the previous head-to-heads and after being booked in a quarter of his games this season feels a generous one.