How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Alex Grimaldo – Over 1.5 Shots vs Olympiacos - 1 pt 5/4 WON
Fabian Ruiz Over 1.5 Shots vs Sporting Lisbon - 1 pt 21/20 WON
Declan Rice – Over 1.5 Tackles vs Inter - 0.75 pts 11/10 VOID
Federico Valverde – Over 1.5 Shots vs Monaco - 1pt 10/13 LOST
Julian Brandt – Over 1.5 Shots vs Tottenham - 1pt 8/5 LOST

Marseille vs Liverpool

Curtis Jones – Over 0.5 Shots vs Marseille - 1pt

10/13 with BetMGM at the time of publishing.

75% AI probability | 56% Odds implied | 35% Expected Value

Jones has been deployed in a more attacking CAM role in his last two games, registering 2 and 3 shots against Burnley and Barnsley. Marseille represents a tougher test, and Jones will likely return to a slightly deeper role with Ekitike fit, Gakpo on the left wing, and Wirtz central, but he will still drift into attacking pockets as usual. He has managed a shot in 9 of his last 11 games from deeper positions, making this a strong value play.

Florian Wirtz – Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt

5/4 with Ladbrokes at the time of publishing.

52% AI probability | 46% Odds implied | 12% Expected Value

Wirtz has been Liverpool’s standout performer recently, scoring 4 goals in his last 6 appearances. His attempts have increased with confidence, registering 4,2,0,2,4 shots in his last five games and hitting the target in 5 of his last 6. Against Marseille, expect him to continue creating and shooting from central positions.

Bayern Munich vs Union St Gilloise

Kevin Mac Allister – Over 2.5 Tackles vs Bayern Munich - 2pts

1/1 with Ladbrokes or Coral at the time of publishing.

74% AI probability | 50% Odds implied | 49% Expected Value

The brother of Liverpool CM Alexis, Kevin Mac Allister is a tackling machine. He averages 3.7 tackles per game this season (3.3 per 90 in the Champions League).

Bayern are expected to dominate possession - they have the third most possession in Europes top 5 leagues (67.7%) and have the second-most tackles against in the CL and Bundesliga, giving Mac Allister plenty of opportunity.

Recent tackle counts:
Champions League: 2,4,5,4,2,2
All competitions: 6,1,2,4,5,4,6,6,5,7,5,4,4

Atalanta vs Athletic Bilbao

Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta – Over 1.5 Fouls vs Atalanta - 1 pt

10/11 with BetMGM at the time of publishing.

71% AI probability | 52% Odds implied | 36% Expected Value

Galarreta is a combative midfielder who regularly commits fouls. His recent totals: 1,2,3,0,3,3,0,2,2,2,4,3,3,4.

Atalanta’s midfielder Ederson draws the third most fouls in his side (1.5 per 90), giving Galarreta plenty of chances to be involved defensively.

Gorka Guruzeta – Over 1.5 Shots vs Atalanta - 1pt

10/13 with Virgin Bet at the time of publishing.

70% AI probability | 57% Odds implied | 23% Expected Value

Guruzeta has been prolific in front of goal, recording 2+ shots in 15 of his last 20 games. Recent shot counts: 2,5,5,9,2,0,1,5,2,1,5,2,2,7. Athletic Club need a win, sitting just outside playoff positions with two games remaining, while Atalanta are comfortably in 8th place, meaning Athletic will push forward and give Guruzeta opportunities.