How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Jamie Leweling – Over 1.5 Shots vs Roma - 1pt - 57/50 - WON
Matias Soule - Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Stuttgart - 1pt - 3/4 - LOST
Juma Bah - Over 0.5 Shots vs Go Ahead Eagles - 1pt - 23/20 - LOST
Óscar Mingueza – Over 0.5 Fouls Committed vs Lille (1pt) - 17/20 - LOST

Running P/L: +13.1 pts

Levante vs Elche

Pablo Martínez – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

19/20 with BetMGM (as short as 1/6 elsewhere)

63% AI probability | 51% Odds implied | 23% Expected Value

This looks strong value on a player who isn’t shy about getting efforts away. Martínez’s recent shot count reads 5,0,1,2,1,3,0,2,0,2, notably firing five shots against Real Madrid in their recent meeting. At close to evens with BetMGM while heavily odds-on elsewhere, this is a clear price discrepancy worth taking advantage of.

Derby vs West Brom

Isaac Price – Over 2.5 Shots - 1pt

15/8 with Ladbrokes

52% AI probability | 48% Odds implied | 10% Expected Value

Price is a volume shooter and regularly backs himself from range. His recent shot counts are 0,4,2,4,2,3,4,6, and he’s hit the target at least once in seven of his last nine. He also managed four shots when these sides met in September, including one on target. With Super Sub insurance added, this looks a solid angle.

Mikey Johnston – Over 0.5 Fouls - 1pt

8/11 with bet365

64% AI probability | 58% Odds implied | 10% Expected Value

Johnston’s discipline has been slipping recently, picking up two yellow cards in his last three games. His foul counts read 2,1,1,0,1,0,0,1,1,2,1,3, showing a consistent tendency to give fouls away. Playing high and wide, he’s often forced into recovery challenges, which makes this a reliable low line.