How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Friday's Results:

Pablo Martínez – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt -19/20 - WON
Isaac Price – Over 2.5 Shots - 1pt -15/8 - LOST
Mikey Johnston – Over 0.5 Fouls - 1pt - 8/11 - WON

Running P/L: +13.8 pts

Arsenal vs Man United

Bryan Mbeumo – Over 1.5 Shots - 1 pt

19/20 with 10Bet at the time of publishing

78% AI probability | 51% Odds implied | 52% Expected Value

Mbeumo is a consistent shooter for Brentford. In 40 games, he has had fewer than 2 shots only seven times. Arsenal are stingy defensively, but Mbeumo managed five shots the last time these sides met, making this a high-value selection.

Declan Rice – Over 0.5 Fouls - 1pt

4/5 with Betway at the time of publishing.

71.18% AI probability | 55.56% Odds implied | 28.12% Expected Value

Rice is a key enforcer in midfield. This could be a high-intensity battle with Fernandes, Mainoo, and Ugarte all among the top six fouls drawn at Man United. His recent foul counts: 2,0,1,1,1,0,1,0,0,1,1,2, and he picked up a foul last time these sides met.

Crystal Palace vs Chelsea

Maxence Lacroix – Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt

10/11 with bet365 (Super Sub) 

64.79% AI probability | 52.38% Odds implied | 23.68% Expected Value

Chelsea dominate possession but concede tackles frequently. Lacroix’s recent tackle counts: 0,1,2,0,2,2,3,4,1,4,1,2,2,3,2,3, hitting 2+ in the majority of games. CBs are key here as Chelsea’s attack probes frequently, providing plenty of opportunities.

Juventus vs Napoli

Giovanni Di Lorenzo – Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

1/1 with Betway at the time of publishing.

62.83% AI probability | 50% Odds implied | 25.66% Expected Value

Di Lorenzo has been active in attack recently, registering 2,2,2,1,3 shots in his last five games and managed one shot when these sides met in December. A solid pick at this price.

Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo

Sergio Gomez – Over 1.5 Tackles - 1.5 pts

17/20 with Ladbrokes at the time of publishing.

Sergio Gomez – Over 2.5 Tackles - 0.5 pts

13/5 with Ladbrokes at the time of publishing.

74.55% AI probability | 54.05% Odds implied | 37.92% Expected Value

Gomez is highly consistent defensively. Recent tackle counts: 3,2,3,5,3,2,5,1,2,3,7, going over 1.5 in 15 of his last 18 games and over 2.5 in 11 of those 18. Up against Swedberg, the third most dispossessed player in the Celta Vigo side, he’s in a prime position to contribute.