EV Eagle's Five Betting Tips for Monday's Football Action

How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Sunday's Results

Bryan Mbeumo – Over 1.5 Shots – 1pt – WON
Declan Rice – Over 0.5 Fouls – 1pt – WON
Maxence Lacroix – Over 1.5 Tackles – 1pt – WON
Giovanni Di Lorenzo – Over 0.5 Shots – 1pt – LOST
Sergio Gomez – Over 1.5 Tackles – 1.5 pts – VOID
Sergio Gomez – Over 2.5 Tackles – 0.5 pts – VOID

Running P/L: +15.8 pts

Idrissa Gueye – Over 0.5 Shots – 1pt

74.03% AI probability | 50.76% Odds implied | 45.84% Expected Value

Best odds of 19/20 with BetMGM when publishing.

Gueye has been increasingly involved offensively at Goodison, registering 1+ shot in 4 of his 6 home starts this season. He has also produced 2+ shots in two of those matches, showing this line doesn’t rely on a single speculative effort. Leeds’ midfield shape often allows space for second-phase strikes around the edge of the box, suiting Gueye’s late runs. With the price implying just a 50% hit rate, the model’s projection makes this a standout value angle.

Tip 2: Idrissa Gueye - 2+ Shots - 0.5pts

Best odds of 11/5 with Coral/Ladbrokes.

Kenny McLean – Over 0.5 Fouls – 1pt

74.78% AI probability | 50% Odds implied | 49.56% Expected Value

Best odds of 1/1 with Sky Bet.

McLean has committed 14 fouls in league starts this season and recorded one in the reverse fixture. Coventry’s midfield draws over three fouls per game, meaning Norwich’s central players are regularly engaged physically. McLean’s combative style and matchup environment point toward another busy defensive outing. The probability gap here highlights strong value at even money.

Ephron Mason-Clark – Over 0.5 Shots on Target – 1.5pts

61% AI probability | 53% Odds implied | 14% Expected Value

Best odds of 17/20 with BetMGM.

Mason-Clark’s recent blank run follows a longer stretch where he delivered 1+ SOT in 9 of 10 matches, showing the last two games are the anomaly rather than the norm. In the reverse fixture he registered five shots with one on target, demonstrating this matchup suits his shooting profile. His role cutting inside ensures regular attempts when Coventry are on the front foot. The probability edge still shows value even at shorter odds.

Juan Iglesias – Over 0.5 Shots – 1pt

78% AI probability | 50% Odds implied | 56% Expected Value

Best odds of 1/1 with SpreadEx/Sporting Index.

Iglesias has been one of Girona’s most consistent shot contributors, producing 1+ shot in 9 of his last 10 matches. His positioning allows him to arrive late in attacking phases and take efforts from the edge of the area. Getafe’s defensive structure encourages second-phase opportunities, where Iglesias often gets involved. With the model projecting close to an 80% success rate, this is one of the strongest EV spots of the slate.