How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Idrissa Gueye – Over 0.5 Shots – 1pt - 19/20 WON
Idrissa Gueye - 2+ Shots - 0.5pts - 11/5 WON
Juan Iglesias – Over 0.5 Shots – 1pt - 1/1 WON
Ephron Mason-Clark – Over 0.5 Shots on Target – 1.5pts - 17/20 LOST
Kenny McLean – Over 0.5 Fouls – 1pt - 1/1 LOST

Werder Breman vs Hoffenheim

Tim Lemperle – Over 0.5 Tackles - 1pt

Best price of 3/4 with Ladbrokes at the time of publishing.

63.76% AI probability | 57.14% Odds implied | 11.58% Expected Value

Recent tackles: 1, 2, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1
Lemperle has been involved in defensive duels regularly and should see opportunities against a Wrder side which contains Schmid who's disposed stats read: 4, 4, 1, 1, 4, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 0, 1, 2, 4, 1, 2, 0, 2

Karim Coulibaly – Over 0.5 Fouls - 1pt

Best price of 8/11 with Ladbrokes.

8/11 with Ladbrokes | 61.41% AI probability | 57.8% Odds implied | 6.24% Expected Value

Recent fouls committed: 2, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0

Coulibaly is one of Hoffenheim’s more combative players, and Werder’s attackers are drawing a lot of fouls:

Marco Grüll Fouls Won: 1, 1, 4, 1, 1, 3, 1, 1, 0, 1, 2, 1, 1, 0, 1, 3, 4

Romano Schmid Fouls Won: 1, 2, 1, 1, 0, 2, 0, 1, 0, 1, 3, 1, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 1, 2, 1

TSG Hoffenheim – Win - 1pt

21/20 with Ladbrokes at the time of publishing.

52% AI probability | 48.78% Odds implied | 6.6% Expected Value

Hoffenheim have lost just once in their last nine Bundesliga matches, winning six and drawing two.

Werder Bremen have gone five games without a win, losing three of their last five.

Despite Werder’s home record, Hoffenheim’s six wins in nine matches suggest they can break down struggling sides.

Werder conceded 4 goals in their last match before the break (vs Stuttgart).

Werder missing three key defenders and both wing-backs, plus midfield absences (Bittencourt ill, Musah and Boniface doubtful).