How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Tim Lemperle – Over 0.5 Tackles - 1pt - 3/4 - WON
Karim Coulibaly – Over 0.5 Fouls - 1pt - 8/11 - LOST
TSG Hoffenheim – Win - 1pt - 21/20 - WON

Running P/L: +16.8 pts

Monaco vs Juventus

Folarin Balogun – Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 1pt

17/20 with BetMGM

70.7% AI probability | 54.1% Odds implied | 30.8% Expected Value

Balogun remains Monaco’s most reliable attacking outlet regardless of opposition. He’s landed a shot on target in 11 of his last 14 matches and has also delivered consistently in the Champions League. Even in Monaco’s heavy defeat to Real Madrid last time out, Balogun still registered four shots and one on target, underlining his willingness to shoot when chasing games. Even with Monaco likely under pressure again, this sets up well.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Villareal

Alex Grimaldo – Over 1.5 Shots - 1 pt

3/4 with BetMGM

72.1% AI probability | 57.1% Odds implied | 26.2% Expected Value

Grimaldo is Leverkusen’s most active shooter from wing-back and continues to post elite volume numbers. He’s cleared this line in 10 of his last 15 across all competitions and averages multiple attempts in Europe. Villarreal arrive in poor form, winless in 10 Champions League matches, conceding 13.1 shots per 90 in La Liga. With Leverkusen needing a result and Villarreal already eliminated, Grimaldo should see plenty of attacking license.

Benfica vs Real Madrid

Álvaro Carreras – Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt

5/6 with SpreadEX

64.8% AI probability | 54.7% Odds implied | 18.6% Expected Value

Carreras is one of Real Madrid’s most consistent tacklers, averaging 2.47 per 90 over his last 20 appearances. His Champions League output is even stronger, regularly clearing this line in high-intensity matches:

Álvaro Carreras Tackles in CL: 4, 0, 6, 4, 2.

Benfica must win to keep their knockout hopes alive, which should lead to sustained pressure and dribble-heavy play down Carreras’ flank. A matchup against the fearless Prestiani only strengthens the case.

Carreras likely faces a fearless 19 year old in Prestiani who is averaging 1.9 dribbles per game in the Portuguese league and 3.1 per 90 in the Champions League.

Vinícius Júnior – Over 2.5 Shots - 1pt

22/25 on BetMGM.

68.3% AI probability | 52.9% Odds implied | 29.1% Expected Value

Vinícius consistently delivers on the biggest stage. In his last 20 Champions League appearances, he’s failed to reach this line just four times, with recent tallies reading 5, 4, 6, 4, 6, 3. While Madrid don’t need to win, they still require a result, and Vinícius remains the primary outlet whenever space opens up on the break.

Dortmund vs Inter

Yann Bisseck – Over 0.5 Shots - 1 pt

4/5 with Ladbrokes.

63.5% AI probability | 54.7% Odds implied | 16.2% Expected Value

Bisseck has become a regular threat from set pieces, registering a shot in 11 of his last 14 appearances. Dortmund have committed the most fouls in the Champions League, while Inter have earned the second-most free kicks, creating ideal conditions for centre-back chances from dead-ball situations. With Inter’s delivery quality, one effort is all that’s required.