How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Folarin Balogun – Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 1pt 17/20 WON
Alex Grimaldo – Over 1.5 Shots - 1 pt 3/4 WON
Álvaro Carreras – Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt 5/6 WON
Vinícius Júnior – Over 2.5 Shots - 1pt 22/25 WON
Yann Bisseck – Over 0.5 Shots - 1 pt 4/5 WON

Running P/L: +21pts

Stuttgart vs Young Boys

Jamie Leweling – Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 1pt

4/5 with BetMGM

72.4% AI probability | 55.6% Odds implied | 30.4% Expected Value

Stuttgart still have work to do, requiring a win here alongside favourable results elsewhere to keep their qualification hopes alive. That should translate into attacking intent from the off.

Leweling is a central figure in that approach, averaging 2.3 shots per game and landing at least one effort on target in nine of his last 13 appearances. With Stuttgart needing goals, he looks well placed to test the keeper at least once.

Cvena Zvezda

Bryan Zaragoza – Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 1 pt

23/20 with SpreadEX

63.4% AI probability | 46.5% Odds implied | 36.2% Expected Value

This is a decisive Europa League clash with both sides still fighting for position in a congested mid-table. Celta Vigo’s attacking numbers stand out - 14 goals scored, the third-most in the competition.

Zaragoza remains heavily involved in chance creation and shot volume, hitting the target in seven of his last 12 appearances. In a must-win scenario, this price underrates his likelihood of forcing a save.

Basel vs Plzen

Leo Leroy – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

4/5 with SpreadEX

67.2% AI probability | 55.6% Odds implied | 20.9% Expected Value

Basel still have a route into the play-off places but only with victory, so expect a front-foot approach. Leroy has been one of their most reliable shooters in Europe, recording 2+ shots in every Europa League appearance so far (2,2,3,3,2,2).

With Basel chasing the game, his volume profile makes this a solid line to clear again.

Nottingham Forest vs Ferencvaros

Igor Jesus – Over 2.5 Shots - 1pt

17/20 with Ladbrokes

79.8% AI probability | 54.1% Odds implied | 47.7% Expected Value

This is a huge spot for Forest, who sit three points outside the automatic qualification places and know only a win keeps those hopes alive. Expect sustained pressure, especially at home.

Igor Jesus thrives in these scenarios, averaging 3.17 shots per 90 this season and posting 6, 5 and 1 shots in his three Europa League starts.

At home Igor Jesus Shots: 0, 3, 2, 2, 5, 5, 3, 1, 4. 

Porto vs Rangers

Gabri Veiga – Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 1pt

4/5 with BetMGM

78.1% AI probability | 55.0% Odds implied | 42.2% Expected Value

Porto are already through, but the battle for a top-eight finish remains very much alive as they sit ninth heading into the final round. That incentive should keep their attacking structure intact.

Veiga has delivered when trusted in Europe, registering 2 and 3 shots on target in his two Europa League starts. With Porto still pushing to avoid the play-off round, backing him to hit the target again looks strong value.

Gabri Veiga Shots on Target: 0, 0, 1, 2, 3, 0, 2, 0, 1.