EV Eagle's Betting Tips for Friday's Football

How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Jamie Leweling – Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 1pt - 4/5  VOID
Bryan Zaragoza – Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 1 pt - 23/20 VOID
Leo Leroy – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - 4/5  VOID
Igor Jesus – Over 2.5 Shots - 1pt - 17/20  WON
Gabri Veiga – Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 1pt - 4/5  VOID

Running P/L: +21.8 pts

Issa Soumaré – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

4/5 with Betfred

66.2% AI probability | 55.6% Odds implied | 19.2% Expected Value

Lens are having a stellar season, sitting just two points behind PSG, but Le Havre are tough to break down, having lost only four of their last 12 games.

Lens sit mid table for shots conceded in the league and although you should expect Lens to win this there should still be chances for Le Havre to shoot. 

Goals are scarce for the away side, but Soumaré remains Le Havre most active shooter when starting. He has registered 2+ shots in 13 of his last 18 games, making him the likeliest candidate to test the keeper today.

Ben Brereton – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

3/4 with SpreadEX

61.2% AI probability | 57.1% Odds implied | 7.1% Expected Value

Brereton Díaz has settled on the right wing after a season of rotation and is delivering in his new role. He has two goals in his last five games and a consistent shot output: 2,2,5,1,3,2 across recent matches. Against a defensively solid side, his volume makes this a solid angle for shots.

Lorenzo Colombo – Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 1pt

19/20 with BetMGM

56.8% AI probability | 51.3% Odds implied | 10.7% Expected Value

Colombo is Genoa’s main attacking outlet and is thriving in form, with three goals in his last five games.

Lorenzo Colombo Shots on Target: 0, 2, 3, 2, 1, 0, 1, 1, 2, 2, 0, 1, 1

Lazio concede a fair number of shots (13 per 90, 10th most in the league), giving Colombo plenty of opportunity to hit the target at least once.

Adrien Thomasson – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt

10/11 with SpreadEX

62.9% AI probability | 52.4% Odds implied | 20.2% Expected Value

Le Havre draw the seventh most fouls in the league, and Thomasson thrives in tight midfield battles. He has landed 2+ fouls in 7 of his last 10 games and will face Ndiaye, who draws 1.24 fouls per 90, creating opportunities for fouls.

Adrien Thomasson Fouls Committed: 0, 2, 3, 4, 4, 2, 2, 5, 1, 3, 1, 3, 4, 2, 4, 1, 0, 1

Lucas Boyé – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt

5/6 with William Hill

65.7% AI probability | 54.7% Odds implied | 20.2% Expected Value

Boye is a consistent midfield enforcer, committing 2+ fouls in 10 of his last 12 games. He also delivered 2 fouls in the last meeting between these sides in November, making this a strong expectation for another active defensive outing.