The EV Eagle has four selections from today's football.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Yesterday's Results
Antoine Semenyo - Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt - 11/13 WON
Kylian Mbappe - Anytime Goalscorer - 1.5pt - 4/6 WON
Danilo Cataldi - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt - 49/50 LOST
Dayot Upamecano - Over 0.5 Fouls - 1pt - 5/6 LOST
Timothy Weah - Over 0.5 Shots - 0.5pt - 10/11 WON
Running P/L: +13.9pts
Sheffield United vs Middlesbrough
Hayden Hackney – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt
1/1 with SpreadEX at the time of publishing (as short as 3/10 elsewhere).
75.78% AI Probability | 57.14% Odds Implied | 32.62% Expected Value
Hackney has been a consistent shooter for Middlesbrough, regularly getting into attacking positions. Recent shot counts read: 2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 4, 3, 4, 2, 2, 3, 2, 2, 3, 1, 4, 1, 3, 5, 6. Expect him to continue this trend and register at least two shots here.
Tommy Conway – Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt
19/20 with BetMGM at the time of publishing (As short as 2/5 elsewhere).
65.59% AI Probability | 51.28% Odds Implied | 27.9% Expected Value
Conway is in red-hot form with three goals in his last three starts and six Championship goals overall. He has landed at least one shot on target in his last five games: 1, 2, 2, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1. Conway and Whittaker are Boro’s standout shooters on target, but recently Conway has been the more clinical of the two.
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Roma vs Cagliari
Marco Palestra – Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt
17/20 with Ladbrokes at the time of publishing.
63.5% AI Probability | 54.05% Odds Implied | 17.48% Expected Value
Cagliari are flying, having won their last three games, and Palestra has been consistently firing off shots this season. His recent shot counts: 1, 3, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 2, 2, 1, including two in the last head-to-head. A solid pick for at least one attempt here.
Atalanta vs Cremonese
Federico Bonazzoli – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt
17/20 with BetMGM at the time of publishing.
66.17% AI Probability | 54.95% Odds Implied | 20.43% Expected Value
Bonazzoli continues to take his chances even in a tough fixture against Atalanta, who concede slightly fewer shots than the league average. Recent shot counts: 1, 5, 2, 4, 1, 0, 3, 2, 3, showing he consistently looks for goal and is the main attacking outlet for Cremonese.
