How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results

Hayden Hackney – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - 1/1 - WON
Tommy Conway – Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt - 19/20 - WON
Marco Palestra – Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt - 17/20 - LOST
Federico Bonazzoli – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - 17/20 - LOST

Running P/L: +13.86 pts

West Ham vs Man United

Diogo Dalot – Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

19/20 with William Hill

66.1% AI Probability | 51.28% Odds Implied | 28.89% Expected Value

Dalot has been consistently active in attack, hitting the target in 9 of his last 10 games: 2, 1, 0, 0, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1. West Ham concede 24% more shots than the league average, so he looks set to get at least one effort on goal.

Taty Castellanos – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt

59/50 with BetMGM

50.83% AI Probability | 45.87% Odds Implied | 10.81% Expected Value

Castellanos has committed fouls in most games since joining West Ham: 3, 0, 2, 3, 4, 2, picking up three yellow cards. United’s dominance of possession (64% in the last meeting between these sides) could see him spending more time defending and getting on the referee’s radar.

Everton vs Bournemouth

David Brooks – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

3/4 with BetMGM

66.71% AI Probability | 56.82% Odds Implied | 17.41% Expected Value

Brooks has been in great shooting form, with attempts of 2, 2, 4, 6, 3, 1, 0. Everton concede 12% more shots than average, making this a solid pick for him to fire off at least two shots.

James Garner – Over 0.5 Fouls - 1.5pt

8/11 with Coral

72.58% AI Probability | 57.8% Odds Implied | 25.56% Expected Value

Garner regularly commits fouls when starting: 2, 3, 0, 3, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 2, and faces Alex Scott, who draws 1.82 fouls per 90. Expect a combative midfield battle.

Jake O’Brien – Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt

1/1 with Bet365 (super sub)

56.18% AI Probability | 50% Odds Implied | 12.36% Expected Value

O’Brien has consistently landed tackles: 3, 1, 4, 1, 3, 0, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2. He faces Bournemouth’s tricky wingers Adli and Truffert, who are frequently dispossessed (Adli: 0,1,1,2 | Truffert: 3,0,1,0,0,2). Truffert also attempts the third most dribbles per game for Bournemouth, giving O’Brien plenty of tackling opportunities.