How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results

Diogo Dalot – Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt -19/20 - WON
Taty Castellanos – Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt - 59/50 - WON
David Brooks – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - 3/4 - VOID
James Garner – Over 0.5 Fouls - 1.5pt - 8/11 - LOST
Jake O’Brien – Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt - 1/1 - WON

Running P/L: +15.5pts

Man City vs Fulham

Raúl Jiménez – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

17/20 with BetMGM

64.37% AI Probability | 53.76% Odds Implied | 19.73% Expected Value

A tough trip for Fulham, but Man City aren’t invincible. They’ve conceded 15, 12, 12, 4, 11, 8, 11, 10 shots in recent games. Jiménez has been active in front of goal: 2, 4, 3, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 0, 0, 2, 1, 0, 6, 2, 0, 3, 6. Expect him to hit at least two shots here.

Crystal Palace vs Burnley

Maxence Lacroix – Over 0.5 Fouls - 1pt

3/4 with Ladbrokes/SpreadEX

65.55% AI Probability | 57.14% Odds Implied | 14.71% Expected Value

Palace’s enforcer averages 1.17 fouls per game, ranking third on the team. With both sides desperate to climb away from the relegation zone, action should be high. Recent numbers against relegation rivals: 4 fouls vs Forest, 2 vs Leeds, 1 vs Wolves, plus a foul in the last head-to-head.

Sunderland vs Liverpool

Ryan Gravenberch – Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt

10/11 with Bet365 (super sub)

67.14% AI Probability | 52.38% Odds Implied | 28.17% Expected Value

Gravenberch dominates the midfield and has exceeded 1.5 tackles in most recent matches: 2, 5, 2, 2, 3, 1, 0, 3, 1, 2.

Florian Wirtz – Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt

6/4 with Bet365 (super sub)

51.62% AI Probability | 46.51% Odds Implied | 10.98% Expected Value

Wirtz is in solid form with 2 goals in his last three games, regularly testing goalkeepers: 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 3, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1. Sunderland concede 16% more shots than the league average, so he has a strong chance to find the target at least once. He should have got one in his last game against Man City were it not for a poor attempt from close range but the fact he had a golden chance is a positive.

Nottingham Forest vs Wolves

Morgan Gibbs-White – Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt

22/25 with BetMGM

57.16% AI Probability | 52.91% Odds Implied | 8.03% Expected Value

Forest’s key attacking outlet, Gibbs-White has been regularly testing goalkeepers: 1, 1, 0, 3, 0, 0, 1, 2, 1. Wolves allow 7% more shots than average, so expect him to get at least one on target in this crucial survival clash.