Macca's Tips & Best Bets for Wednesday's Premier League GW26

Matty Cash Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ 3.10 (Paddy Power) 1pt

I’m backing Matty Cash to register at least one shot on target at a big price here.

Cash is averaging 0.55 SOT per game across his last 20, hitting in 10 of those 20 matches (50%), with 86 minutes per game on average so we can expect to see this bet inplay for pretty much the whole game.

Villa at home tend to dominate a lot of the ball, especially against sides like Brighton who will likely opt to play out quick in transition. Cash’s role naturally benefits from that. He overlaps aggressively and often arrives late at the back post. Quite often wide players tuck in and leave room for Cash to make his runs.

I’d expect Emery to go strong here in the league, meaning full minutes for first choice players like Cash and rotation to be in the next FA Cup game instead.

At 3.10, we’re getting paid well above his underlying hit rate. This price implies around a 32 percent chance, yet he’s landing this in 50 percent of his recent matches.

Raúl Jiménez Over 1.5 Shots @ 1.82 (BetMGM + VirginBet) 1.5u

This is a tough fixture on paper, but the price is simply too big.

Jiménez is averaging 3.1 shots per game across his last 10, winning this line in 9 of those 10 matches. He’s Fulham’s clear focal point and I don’t think the Kambi operators (Odds provider for BetMGM and Virgin take into account that the teams shot distribution gets more heavily weighted to the forward in these types of games than a typical match)

The standout angle here is price disparity. Most other firms are sitting between 1.30 and 1.50 for this line, which implies a far higher probability than Kambi’s 1.82.I also looked at City’s recent opposition. In their last five matches against a side that deployed a recognised lone striker saw that player cleared the 1.5 shots line in every one, several comfortably landing on 3+. City dominate possession, but that actually forces volume onto the opposing number nine when transitions do come. Crosses, counters etc all funnel toward that central striker.

Mohamed Salah Over 2.5 Shots @ 2.10 (Bet365, 10Bet) & 2.0 Various - 1u

This price feels wrong as Salah is averaging 2.9 shots across his last 15 and he’s clearing this line 60% of the time in that stretch. We’re getting 2.10 which is interesting when you compare that Ekitike is sitting around 1.50 to 1.60 odds for the same 2.5 line despite averaging only 0.10 more shots per game.

He also comes into this one after taking 5 shots against Man City. If he can take that many shots against one of the best teams in the league then he should be able to against Sunderland too. Sunderland’s games tend to be open, they average 14.1 shots against per game which is about 15% above the league average.